Truth and certainty

Many commentators on the global economic and ecological scene wishfully call for truth and certainty. Is it a bull market or is it a bear market? Will the bail out of Greece (or Spain or Italy or California) work? Is the Chinese economy peaking? Will India be able to manage the common power failures? Will the current US drought do irreparable damage to world food production? Is there any way to stop global warming?

Many pundits address the pros and cons of all these issues. Confusion reigns! Complexity grows and resilience declines. The bewildered masses strive to make do despite the apparent uncertainty engendered by all the blather. They are at a loss because they have not been told the truth.
This is not surprising because the natural forces that control what happens do not have a voice. They have just acted for eons, despite that actions of human technological tools irreversibly drawing down on the limited natural material capital. As a consequence, the truth is the certainty this century of demise of industrialized civilization. No rhetoric, no decisions, of humanity can change that destiny.

Denis Frith

Divestment of natural capital

George Monbiot published a piece, The Great Imposters, in the Guardian of 7th August 2012 in which he describes the trend to commodify natural capital so market forces will determine their usage.The argument in favour of this approach is coherent and plausible. Business currently treats the natural world as if it is worth nothing. Pricing nature and incorporating that price into the cost of goods and services creates an economic incentive for its protection. However, it does not take into account the fact that many components of natural capital, such as oil, soil fertility, phosphorus, the marine ecosystem and the climate are being irreversibly degraded by the operations of the systems of civilization. Incorporating the ecological cost into business plans is a logical improvement on what has been done in the past but it still does not take into account the divestment of the natural capital. It is an unsustainable process so future generations will learn the hard way how unwise their forebears were.

Denis Frith