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Entropy production delusion

It is common in knowledgeable circles to talk about the development of civilization in terms of entropy discussion. The term 'entropy...

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Black Swan event

Nassim Taleb coined the term 'Back Swan event' to describe events that are unexpected by people. This definition needs to be qualified as to who finds the event to be unexpected. The earthquake that hit Japan a couple of years ago was not expected by the residents. It was a 'Black Swan' event as far as they were concerned. But it was not to the scientists who were aware of the fault lines in the region. They could not predict when an earthquake would occur but they knew one was likely.

Many well off people lost money in the GFC (global financial crisis) of 2008. It was a Black Swan event as far as they were concerned. But it was not to bankers and investors who understood that the boom in the financial market was likely to bust. They made money!

Society, particularly those in government and industry, believe in economic growth. They do not understand that all the technological systems that provide the goods and services society is addicted to using irreversibly use up the limited natural material capital. That view is a characteristic of Myopia. What is actually happening is the characteristic of the Real world. Climate change and the depletion of natural resources is a Real symptom of what Myopia has done wrong. Unfortunately, society will have cope with what they consider to be a Black Swan event because they have been educated to believe that Homo sapiens make sound decisions.

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