Discerning the way ahead

We welcome all those people who are concerned with what is happening to our civilization,Tityas, and would like to contribute their expertise to understanding of what went wrong. There is a challenge to make the best possible use of the remaining natural capital (INMR - irreplaceable natural material resources) and natural income (RNMR - replenishing natural material resources) for the benefit of all components of society and our life support system, the terrestrial and marine eco systems. Wise use of the remaining natural capital, particularly that supplying energy, and natural income can contribute to saving the best aspects of our cultures as well as helping the disadvantaged in our global community to strive for a better quality of life. It can help to remedy some of the damage to the environment.

A spreadsheet, called Growth and Senescence of Civilization (G&SC) has been produced to facilitate this objective. It covers from 1850 out to 2100 using data up to the present on a multitude of factors and estimates of how these factors will change in the future. This concept has been found to be a useful means of taking into account interdependent factors using judgmental weights. It is being backed by the G&SC Issues document containing reference to factors that are deemed to be relevant to issues covered in the spreadsheet. This document is intended to aid transparency. It will show skeptics what factors have been taken into account and what importance is attached to them. The credibility of the assessments will be fostered by collaboration of a range of knowledgeable personnel.

This spreadsheet is a tool that has great potential for transparently combining the expertise and understanding of people from a range of communities and experience. It will enable economists to better understand the influence of ecology and energy usage on what is happening in the operation of our materialistic world. It will help business people to discern opportunities in a contracting economy. It enables physicists to ensure that the impact of energy on operations and the associated waste production are correctly included. It assists in appreciating the sensitivity of the holistic scene to detail measures. It will enable futurologists to enhance and promulgate their views. It will help educationists to pass on physical and ecological reality. It will foster communication between the holistic views of society's leaders and the reductionist views of specialists. It will change the outlook of government. It will provide understanding of the dependence of all the operations of Tityas, as well as Gaia, on natural forces. Humans can only make decisions about how the limited natural capital, particularly energy, can be used by the systems of Tityas.

The spreadsheet has the advantage that it can easily be run with some of the estimates of the future influence of factors adjusted to provide an indication of 'what if' scenarios. For example, it has been used to compare likely trends for different future population developments, taking into account associated factors. It has been used to provide an indication of the long term consequences of a Black Swan event such as the global financial crisis.

This should be a fascinating voyage into a novel field. It can do much to ameliorate the social consequences of the senescence of our civilization, Tityas, as energy resources decline. It can provide guidance to those rising to the challenge of society living with its life support system.