Beyond our ken

As a long standing physical scientist, I have repeatedly asked many technical questions over the years about what physically happens and why. I manged to get a few answers during my career as an aeronautical research scientist. I have been researching what technological systems have done to the environment during my retirement. This covers a much broader field so I have come up with many more questions but not many more answers!

Some questions that are unanswered include:

1. scientists have determined the microscopic composition (electrons, neutrons, protons) of elements and chemical compounds. They know their properties and their role in the operation of ecosystems. What carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere are doing to the climate is a popular topic now. We give little thought to the oxygen in the air mixture that we breathe or that normally there is no free hydrogen but it is in many compounds, such as water, that we find invaluable. Physicists and engineers have learned how some elements are radio active and how that can be used to provide nuclear energy in power stations  and in bombs.Chemists have provided appreciable understanding of the grouping of elements in the periodic table. They have devised reactions that have produced new products, often unexpectedly toxic although profitable.What determined this structure of elements?
2. the flow of energy plays a major role in the operation of all systems made of material. The Sun has been the source of the energy used by systems here on Earth, even that energy stored for ages in oil, gas and coal. Various forms of energy are properties of materials. It is the chemical energy in oil that powers many of the systems of civilization. However, it is the gravitational potential of water that fills a similar role with hydro stations supplying electricity. Physicists understand the microscopic aspects of energy even to the relation between energy and matter. But do cosmologists have the answer to the question as to how matter and energy came into existence?
3. natural forces took millions of years to produce oil using energy that came from the Sun. Humans devised means of extracting a high proportion of the crustal store of oil so that they can use mechanical monsters to carry them and their goods hither and thither on land, in the air and upon the sea. Despite valiant attempts by industry to devise measures to extract what is remaining of the various forms of oil, the availability of oil products is irreversibly declining. The question is: what will most people do when they can not longer call upon the mechanical monsters to carry them and their goods hither and thither?
4. fuel for the mechanical monsters is running out. That is an indisputable fact. It is not a question. But those monsters are made of irreplaceable materials extracted out of the crustal store. And friction ages them. So the question is whether the die off of the mechanical monsters will be a bigger problem for society than running out of fuel.
5. scientists have in recent times acquired a vast amount of knowledge and understanding of how the vast array of natural forces operate in the various fields. The introduction of  improved instruments and data handling systems has facilitated  that progress. Governments and industries sponsor technological research and development with the objective of the provision of innovative goods and services. Why is science given such reverence when the objective is to provide these goods and services at the expense of permanent divestment of natural material wealth?
6. engineers got so carried way with the invention of machinery to extract and process natural material resources to supply electrical energy that they did not take into account the fact that  useful energy is always a property of materials. The combustion of fossil fuels produces the greenhouse gases that have made a major contribution to irreversible rapid climate change and ocean acification and warming. Can they redress that mistake by coming up with a system that will sequester carbon dioxide in a sustainable manner? That is a question that has been addressed without taking into account the fact that sequetering would entail the installation of a temporary system at appreciable ecological cost.
7. do those who benefit from what technological systems provide by ravishing eco systems take into account the fact that the natural force, friction, irreversibly ages the systems. This is common knowledge but its long term impact is not factored into financial consideration. Do politicians, economists and financial advisers believe natural resources can be conjured up out of thin air in the way money is?
8. disposal of radioactive waste from nuclear power stations has been put in the too hard baskets by governments in a number of countries. What sound proposals can possibly deal with this problem when the capabilities to carry out remedial measures have been drastically reduced as materials run out?
9. wise people have the view that greed is the (financial) market's vice. They view greed as being at the heart of three major threats to our existence as individuals and societies: pollution, terrorism and crime. What can be done to get rid of this insidious disease?
10. oligarchy has been a tenet of the elite in societies for a long time even though the term has gained prominence through activities in Russia in recent times. What do the oligarch hope to gain with their riches apart from a lavish life style. It certainly is not immortality and it appears that it does not buy them happiness. What can explain the rapid growth of this parasitic portion of the human race?  
11. economists are strong in pronouncements of policies that will foster economic growth. They have developed mathematical tools to analyze financial market developments and to estimate opportunity costs. They claim they have adopted a scientific methodology. How can they claim that when ecological costs are not included in their methodology?
12. What right has society to condone the irreversible devastation of the life support system of civilization?
13. The Good Friday Appeal for the Melbourne Children's Hospital  brings to the TV screen the marvelous efforts of the doctors and nursing staff in dealing with sick children. They use a bewildering array of devices in carrying out their life saving activities. What will these skilful people do when the specialized equipment can no longer be procured? How will parents deal with the loss of these heath services?That time will come before the end of this century.

Free will

It is amusing the read the discussions of seemingly knowledgeable people about whether people exercise 'free will'. Many claim that people cannot exercise free will and they quote the constraints that determine that it is not free will.The only constraints on what I am typing now is that the computer system exists. I am free to express my opinion of 'free will'. You might think what I am writing is gibberish. You are free to write what you believe to be the case with respect to 'free will'.
Leonardo da Vinci doubtless had his beliefs about 'free will' as he was free to indulge his artistic creative ability centuries ago.

So, yes, there are boundaries to the 'free will' region. Physical, social, political, religious and economic constraints can define the boundaries of the region but individuals have the 'free will' within that region.Even a one-year-old child exercises a degree of 'free will' within its limited region. On the other hand, even a billionaire has a limit to his/her large 'free will' region and it will contract drastically late in life.

The demise of the flying machine

For centuries, people dreamed of being able to fly like birds. Leonardo da Vinci had sound ideas but it was centuries before pioneers like Lawrence Hargrave produced machines that obtained lift from the air. Numerous people in various countries tried variations but it was the Wright brothers in the US who were the first to succeed in have a machine carry a human in a flight. This was a start to the twentieth century. Rapid progress followed as understanding of aerodynamics and engineering aided the race in many countries to build bigger, faster and longer flying aircraft. Military requirements provided much of the early boost for the rising aircraft industries but developments for commercial use really took over in the middle of the century. Airliners now dominate traffic in the skies and many people enjoy rapid transit around the globe for political, business and pleasure activities.

Very few of the passengers in these airliners give a moments thought to the reality that airliners are an artificial, parasitic species that is doomed for extinction this century. Many clever people have made contributions to the design, construction and operation of airliners such as the Boeing Dreamliner and the A380 Airbus. But these aircraft use jet fuel, processed from oil. The supply of this natural bounty is irreversibly running out and no viable alternative is practical. Bio-fuels can fill only a niche role at the expense of meeting other needs, including food. But lack of fuel will not be the only factor leading to the demise of the artificial bird. Aircraft are made of a range of materials gleaned from the crustal store and many of these are also becoming beyond reach rapidly. So our emulation of birds is  doomed because we could not come up with a means to emulate nature's slow but reliable means of generating such natural resources as oil. The skills of the aerodynamicists, designers, machinists, management, pilots and others in the aeronautics fields will become surplus to requirements as society at large tries to cope with the inevitable powering down as the infrastructure of civilization collapses. Society at large will not be happy with the withdrawal of the service currently provided by the airlines. And the military will have to reduce their dependence on aircraft, including drones.

Cars, container vessels, computers and numerous other devices that society has become dependent on will also become become fond memories for those who survive the inevitable loss of much of the essentials, food, potable water, shelter, heating, air conditioning, health services and sanitation. The disintegration of the cities will be a reminder of the fact that humans could not successfully use up the limited natural material wealth that had evolved over eons at such a high rate.They will have to power down and try to live with what nature can still provide.

A dose of reality every day

Every day:

•  twenty four hours go by as time passes in the natural operational cycles, day/night, summer/autumn/winter/spring.
•  more people are born than die in processes that happen naturally
• all people, organisms and plants age due to irrevocable natural processes
• the inanimate structures of civilization also irrevocably age due to irrevocable natural processes,  largely forms of friction
• so do cars, trucks, ships and airliners as they use up irreplaceable fuel produced from the global store of crude oil for operation
• water recycles naturally through evaporation and precipitation in the hydrological cycle but large amounts are contaminated by industrial processes
• but systems of civilization use up aquifer water (such as the Great Artesian Basin) unsustainably 
• carbohydrates are produced using carbon dioxide in the photosynthesis stage in plants of the natural carbon cycle
• carbon dioxide is produced from carbohydrates in the respiration stage in animals in the natural carbon cycle 
• the carbon cycle was roughly in balance for eons before technological systems started using fossil fuels so now the emission rate is  much greater than the absorption rate
• hydrocarbons are converted in fossil fuel combustion in temporary systems made of irreplaceable materials to increase the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sufficiently to change the climate and acidify and warm the ocean unnaturally
• hydrocarbons in fossil fuels are produced naturally at high pressures at such a slow rate that this does not influence the operation of civilization 
• the combustion of coal in aging power plants irreversibly emits gaseous, liquid and particular pollutants contributing to global warming, ocean acidification and harming organisms, including humans
• many millions of barrels of oil out of the crustal store are destroyed in a variety of manners, many of which are not very useful
• nitrogen cycles unnaturally in temporary plants to produce artificial fertilizers and naturally in biological  processes.
• phosphorus is so necessary in food production that its declining availability will increase starvation
• vast amounts of soil nutrients are flushed out from cities to contaminate waters
• all energy flows end up as waste heat after doing useless or useful positive work in natural and technological processes
• various forms of friction do negative work in transforming useful material to irrevocable waste during operations
• but friction also enables birds and airplanes to fly
• hearts pump blood against friction
• unexpected climatic events such as floods, droughts, storms, heat waves, cold spells, wild fires, sea level rise are growing evidence of climate change
• creation of fiat money increases the capability of people to continue their ravishing of the natural life support systems only so long as the value of the money is not irrevocably degraded by continuing inflation 
• society is  beguiled with the temporary availability of all forms of electronic gadgets for business, computing, obtaining information, banking, online shopping, communication and socializing.
• physical scientists continue using the latest technology to advance the frontiers of knowledge of how nature works, so illustrating how little was previously understood, while continuning to not take the impact of fundamentals into account
• social scientists continue to speculate on the behavior of all levels of the human race without understanding the limitations imposed by physical reality

 These activities will continue tomorrow and every day as long as natural forces allow society and its technological infrastructure to get away with freely degrading the eco systems and divesting natural material wealth. Society is so entranced with the power of fiat money that they will continue to ignore physical reality until it is too late to power down comfortably.

What smart people, think, decide and do.

Smart people have left their positive implant on civilization over the ages and will continue to do so even during the senescence of our industrial civilization even though circumstances are not encouraging. They know their mortality will give them only a limited amount of time to strive to meet realistic goals. These goals generally depend on circumstances outside of their control. Africans, in the main, have to set their sights lower than most Americans or Australians. Those who are denied a good education through a range of possible factors can be smart by learning from other sources, including from the examples set by people successful in worthwhile fields. Females have to set their sights lower than males in those activities based on bodily strength but not necessarily on degree of smartness. It is not smart for talented musicians to strive for excellence in a sport for which their body is not suited.

Smart people do not just hope that their circumstance will improve. They will strive to make the decisions that will make the best use of their talents and skills to help family and friends to cope with reality. Smart people will not be conned by the media advertisements to buy goods they really do not need. They certainly will not be convinced by the rhetoric of politicians about about the merits of economic growth because they understand the ecological cost of the ravishing by the systems of civilization.

Smart people will strive to extract some wisdom from the vast amount of information produced by the digital revolution.

The Profound Mystery

The technological systems of industrialized civilization are irreversibly using up limited natural material resources to provides society with goods and services together with the construction, operation and maintenance of the vast infrastructure. This operation entails appreciable disruption of  biodiversity and damage to the environment. It also outputs material wastes that promote such deleterious consequences as climate change and ocean acidification while polluting land, sea and air to the detriment of species and biodiversity health.

That is the stark reality of what is happening. But very few people understand the fundamental principles that underline the above hypothesis. The vast majority believe the conventional view that economic growth is the norm. They appreciate the role that energy has played in development.They are conditioned to believe that with know how and hard work they can enjoy a high material standard of living. They may have a cynical view of their political masters and bankers while lauding the celebrities in the financial circles, arts and sports. But they go along with the idea of business as usual because they have been conned by the education system, government and media, to expect that progress will continue to be conjured up out of thin air!

So, on one hand we have what is happening in the Real world while on the other, the common, Myopia view. The Myopia view does not take into account the divestment of natural material wealth in meeting the demands of technological civilization and its resident population.

The mystery is two fold. Firstly, why is society so blind to what civilization has done wrong and is still doing wrong despite the multitude of warning signs that nature throws up? Climate change is one symptom of this malfeasance of civilization.

Secondly, what will society do to cope with reality as the Real world gradually hits harder below the belt and civilization collapses? The 'leaders' of society will not lead the way as they are blinded by dollars. The bewildered masses will strive to power down as painlessly as possible as the infrastructure they are so dependent on disintegrates through lack of sustenance. Cars and airliners are endangered species through lack of fuel. The supply of food, water and electricity will decline as the concentrated energy capital from the crustal store runs out. Ironically, science will not provide guidance as it has been too concerned with innovative use of natural forces to provide understanding of the fundamental principles that limit the sustainability of technological systems. The only hope is that smart people will use their understanding of Real to make wise decisions that will ease the inevitable powering down of society.

Science's illusory role

Scientific investigations have the objective of providing people with understanding of what happens and how this comes about. They are an anthropocentric invention aimed at satisfying human curiosity. Physical scientists have discerned only some aspects of how natural forces have operated for eons, operate now even in industrialized civilization as well as the natural world and will continue to operate long after the collapse of this civilization.

Science has provided people with sufficient understanding of how some natural forces operate that they have been able to construct technological systems that use natural material resources (wisely and unwisely) to temporarily supply goods and services while having the unintended consequences of outputting intractable waste material and immutably damaging the environment. The technological systems that have stemmed from scientific findings have done no more than use natural forces to operate on natural resources in producing goods and services. Technology has never created anything, despite the hype that humans have about its utility.

Mother Nature slowly responds to the parasitic operations of civilization without being aware of the mutterings of the invasive human species. But the populace still believe that scientific findings will allow them to continue the malfeasance of civilization's operations. They do not understand that scientists have provided understanding of only some of Mother Nature's repertoire with the fundamental physical principle being beyond their ken. Technological systems are irreversibly using up natural material in tangible operations. So civilization irreversibly uses some of Mother Nature's bounty for temporary relief while society hopes that intangible money flow will continue to power the illusion of economic growth although it does not pay the eco cost.

So when will society realize that the benefits they have enjoyed as the result of scientific findings are only one side of the coin. That the claims that science is advancing the the frontiers of knowledge  are really pointing out how limited scientific knowledge of the operation of natural forces had been. The failure of science to warn of the damage to the ecosystems of using fossil fuel to provided energy is but one example of the failings of science. Yet the illusion still persists because the flow of fiat money still manages to provide society with the benefits provided by technology. Ironically it also it has a significant impact on the research carried by scientists and,in many cases, on their findings!