Objectives of the ELAM (Earth’s Lodgers’ Activity Management) movement.

Abstract

Society has an anthropocentric delusion fostered by the powerful in government and industry and accentuated by the mainstream media that continuing growth of the economy is possible. It conjures up the common belief that sufficient natural material resources will always continue to be available to enable this growth even though consumption of these resources underpins all materialistic operations. This fallacy is examined in this essay in order to indicate means by which society can steer the future as economic contraction inevitably sets in. Can society meet the challenge of living with what nature can continue to provide?

Technology has provided civilization with the means to irreversibly use up these limited natural material resources, produce irretrievable material wastes and degrade the environment. Climate change is just one symptom of the holistic malfeasance ordained by society using technological systems. It does this in providing the goods, services and temporary infrastructure society has become so dependent on. That operation of these technological systems is an unsustainable process that society will eventually have to cope with by powering down during the senescence of the infrastructure.  This coping process can be fostered by widespread understanding of the damage and divestment these systems of civilization are irrevocably doing. It can contribute to many people making sound decisions about what natural resources they need to use.

 ELAM (Earth’s Lodgers’ Activity Management) movement can steer humanity by providing understanding of what has gone wrong. This understanding will help humanity rise to the challenge of steering future developments as much as it is physically possible. It will require the population to accept greater responsibility for its usage decisions in exchange for having the right to use up natural material resources. This is not a dystopian vision. It is a realistic vision of true democracy. This change in attitude can only come about by educating all into what technological systems are doing wrong rather than focussing on what they supply. The accent to date has been on the benefits of technological innovations without taking into account the irrevocable ecological costs. The focus of ELAM should tend towards having skills that aid society in coping with what is happening rather than encouraging greater consumption. Improved understanding will encourage altruism and pride in underwriting a society making best possible use of the remaining natural resources.

 

 

Objectives of the ELAM (Earth’s Lodgers’ Activity Management) movement.

Basic operational principles

Humanity needs to really understand the operational scene to be able to steer the future to some extent. It is of assistance in identifying the operational principles of industrialized civilization to separate the considerations into those dealing with what people are deciding and personally doing from actually what happens in the operation of the installed technological systems, the materialistic infrastructure of civilization (termed Tityas here to simplify the discussion). The vast majority of people have a biased, anthropocentric view of how civilization operates: a view centred on the role of intangible money on the economy.  A section of society, called Preds here, have gained materially by financial misuse of capabilities while the masses, called Paras here, strive to go along with the delusion.

That anthropocentric view (called Myopia in this essay to emphasize its misleading role) is the primary reason for the failings of this civilization in wasting nature’s material bounty. Real world operations, as always determined by natural forces, are discussed before expanding on how Myopia distorts the views and decisions of people.

                                         

People have only a minor direct physical impact on the operation of the ecosystems of Gaia (the natural world named by Lovelock). Their inputs of air, food and liquids and outputs of gaseous, liquid and solid wastes are trivial items in the overall scheme of things in operations. This basic mode of operation has always been the characteristic of living organisms and will always continue. However, the production of the food, the supply of potable water and the disposal of the liquid and solid wastes do place an appreciable load on the operation of installed technological systems. The supply of potable water, the disposal of sewerage, the transportation, storage and cooking of food are just some of the basic services provided by these systems irreversibly using up natural resources to provide the energy to do the positive work on the systems, which are made of irreplaceable material.

Forms of friction always do negative work at the same time although that is not generally recognised even though the consequential aging of the systems is. The lubrication oil in car engines reduces the influence of friction but it does not stop the engines from aging. Ironically friction is very beneficial in many circumstances. The car could not move without friction enabling traction – and wear of the tyres together with heating. Even walking would not be possible without the action of friction, as people who try to walk on a frozen lake realize. A billiard ball rolls when struck due to friction. Newton’s Second Law of Motion is that force equals mass times acceleration. The motion is the result of the applied force but the motion is resisted by friction. Drop a ball. Gravity (the positive force) accelerates the ball but aerodynamic drag due to friction (the negative force) reduces the acceleration slightly.

All organisms operate within a range of natural physical constraints in their environment. Birds (and humans) need to have access to air but dolphins live in ocean waters. Bacteria inhabit soil, water, and the deep portions of Earth’s crust. Bacteria also live in relationships with plants and animals (including humans). The degree of free will of organisms to feed, reproduce and engage in other activities is thereby limited by the applicable constraints. However, some of the limitations on human beings have been markedly reduced in recent times. Many people now-a-days can exercise their free will by deciding to fly away on an overseas holiday. Communication across vast distances is easy.  Even feeding and reproducing have been ameliorated to a degree by advances in the services provided by technology together with advances in knowledge. These social improvements are because the development of Tityas has temporarily removed many of the physical constraints. So people are often misusing their free will because of lack of understanding of the long term consequences of the irrational devastation by Tityas of Gaia’s bounty. Embracing online services has become popular even though the production and operation of electronic devices is an unsustainable process. How will people cope with the withdrawal of these and other services. A popular movement embracing a high proportion of the population embracing frugality and rationality will be needed to ease the inevitable powering down.

Humans have invented the means to use up limited natural material resources to provide the energy and the materials to produce goods, supply services and to manufacture, operate and maintain the infrastructure of civilization. These technological systems do not create anything, despite what most people believe. Chemistry has produced many innovative products, often with unintended consequences, only by using reactions in a way that have not evolved naturally. These systems only use natural forces to irreversibly use natural material resources to produce things. Humans have used technology to give Tityas this capability without understanding that it can only be temporary. They do not take into account that various systems transform eighty six million barrels of irreplaceable oil to fumes each day because they seem to believe, for some incomprehensible reason, that it can continue to be extracted in the foreseeable future. Doubtless they believe that technology will improve sufficiently to make good the situation as the quality of the remaining reserves declines. Those who have invested in fracking to recover shale oil will soon learn the mistake the hard way. And oil is only one of many of nature’s bounty being consigned to the scrap heap every day.

The inanimate, tangible infrastructure, from the cities down, is a gigantic organism, constructed, operated and maintained by using up materials mined by using fossil fuel or nuclear power to provide most of the energy for the necessary machinery. Skilled workers are another essential input to this process. The flow of money to finance these operations is an intangible determinant of which possible tangible operations are carried out.  Financial market “forces” tend to balance out supply and demand, even when the demand is irrational and the supply is limited by physical constraints! All components of this infrastructure have limited lives due to the aging action of natural forces, with friction doing negative work in response to the positive work of the energy flow. Some of these components will be replaced when required (often because they are worn out by the friction) only so long as the required material, energy, machinery and skilled personnel are still available. Financing of the operation will depend on this ability to mount the tangible operation to meet the demand of society. However, that is an unsustainable replacement process because the materials are irreversibly degraded and are not replenishing naturally in a timely manner. The transformation of hydrocarbons in fossil fuels to carbon dioxide, water vapour and other material by combustion is the outstanding example of what is happening to materials. Most of the energy used is capital out of the crustal store. The usefulness of solar ‘renewable’ energy income is limited by the form of systems (such as wind farms) required to convert the solar energy to electrical energy and how long they can operate.  Financing cannot affect that principle although it will affect which possibilities are implemented.

The extraction of various forms of oil to provide the fuel for land, sea and air transportation vehicles is the major operation being unsustainably carried out. As the output from the giant oil fields in the Middle East, North Sea and elsewhere declines, industry embraces desperate methods such as fracking and oil sands to try to meet the continuing demand. However, the decreasing supply of many other materials will gradually cause other predicaments for society that can only be mitigated by sound decisions based on understanding of physical reality rather than the delusionary power of money. For example, the increasing difficulty in mining the vast range of rare earth minerals will have a deleterious impact on the availability of electronic devices. How will people cope without the online services they have become so dependent on? Phosphorus has a significant impact on food production yet its supply from the remaining natural sources is rapidly decreasing.              

 Science provides understanding of many aspects of what is irreversibly happening in the operation of natural and technological systems. The natural forces that control the growth of species of trees in various regions do not differ in principle from those that control the operation of a coal-fired power station supplying electricity. The action of these forces is prescribed by natural laws, even when humans have had no understanding of these laws. This fundamental principle has operated for eons. Scientists have provided sufficient understanding of some of these concepts in recent times to enable the industrial revolution without appreciation of some of the ramifications. Rapid, irreversible climate change with ocean heating and acidification is just one of the unintended consequences of this lack of understanding. However, the most basic one is that the technological systems of civilization do not naturally reproduce while most of the natural systems, including people, do. That is the fundamental difference between the tree and the coal-fired power station. The tree’s design together with its growth and senescence programs are in its seed, sunlight provides the energy for its growth while rainfall and soil nutrients provide the materials. The leaves it sheds and its wood contribute to natural recycling processes if humans do not interfere. Engineers design the power stations and oversee their construction, operation and maintenance using materials out of the crustal store. The power stations consume coal from this store and use water in the electricity generation process during their limited lifetimes. They may be replaced by using up more resources if circumstances permit. The fundamental difference between people and robots is similar. Robots do not naturally replenish even though their designers aim, with some success, to have their invention emulate people! And cities do not recycle. They just continue to demand the use of vast amounts of natural resources in a process that is not possibly sustainable although that reality is beyond the ken of most people. The populations of past Egyptian, Sumerian, Maya, Kmer and other civilizations learned the lesson the hard ward. Myopia is a delusion!  

 A fundamental hypothesis is that while natural processes in Gaia intrinsically cycle or reproduce so are sustainable, artificial (technological) processes in Tityas can only recycle or reproduce in some circumstances so the process is basically unsustainable.  The hydrological cycle naturally provides rainfall and snow. The carbon cycle is a major factor in respiration of animals and the photosynthesis of plants. However, electricity is just one product of technology that does not recycle. Consequently, the demise of Tityas is certain while Gaia will very slowly recover from the damage that Tityas has done.

The discussion of energy by governments, industry and the media as though it is a separate commodity contributes significantly to the misunderstanding about what is irrevocably happening in materialistic operations. Even engineers do this when they discuss processes without considering the systems in which the process operates! The fact that useful energy (chemical, electrical, kinetic, gravitational potential or heat) is always a property of materials is generally not explicitly taken into account. Thermodynamics is an engineering subject that deals with entropy increase in processes without discussion of the mechanism that causes the energy dissipation, which is friction doing negative work. This invariably occurs in a system made of materials and friction plays the major role in the dissipation of energy to heat as well as the transformation of material to waste. Car tyres heat up and wear out due to the friction that provides traction. Cars find it hard to gain traction on an icy road as the friction is low. Planes cannot fly in space because they need the friction between the flow of air and the wing surface to generate lift and drag. The heart does essential work in pumping blood through arteries and veins against friction. The irreversible flow of energy is necessary in all materialistic operations but consideration of that process alone is not sufficient for understanding of what invariably happens: the aging of the system also needs to be taken into account.

What society is doing wrong

The human race has acquired a mix of myths, false beliefs, arrogance and lack of understanding of physical operations that contribute to the Myopic (delusionary) view that it has acquired. Myopic views exist, essentially, at the three levels of reductionist  knowledge of the physics of tangible operations, biased views of the powerful in society of the role of intangible money and belief by the masses of the hype that has been generated.

 Specialists in a wide range of natural science fields have deep reductionist understanding in their fields that contributes little to the holistic understanding of the global malfeasance. Biologists have acquired an appreciable amount of data on the damage the operations of industrial civilization have done to the biodiversity that had developed for eons. Marine biologists are horrified at what they are learning about what has irreversibly happened in the oceans. Climatologists have been trying for decades to convince the powerful in society that irreversible rapid climate change is already under way due to the misunderstanding of the viability of obtaining energy from the hydrocarbons in fossil fuels. Medical experts are gaining more evidence of the harm being done by the industrial toxic wastes polluting land, sea, air and organisms, including people.

The pronouncements of these experts are discounted in the mainstream as they have little impact discernible to the masses or on the monetary decisions being made by the elite. Powerful people have little education in, so understanding of, physical sciences so are entranced with the power of money to grow economies. They believe that natural resources can be freely used despite their education into the virtue of balance sheets! Industrialists are motivated to pursue profit without having to pay the ecological costs. They do not see that the divestment of natural wealth as being their responsibility. The masses pursue as best they can a high material standard of living by working to the best of their ability and voting in politicians to make what often turns out to be irresponsible decisions (biased by Myopia).

That lack of reasonable perspective in society is compounded by a number of issues.
The production of goods and services involves three processes, the flow of money, the application of the intellectual and manual skills of the workers and the irreversible divestment of the limited natural material wealth. The ecological cost of the third item and its unsustainability is not taken into account in the Myopic considerations of society.

Society has acquired a belief in the power of money based on experience over many centuries. This power has increased appreciably in recent times, partly due to manipulation by vested interests. Its usefulness in the conduct of all aspects of business cannot be denied even though it is hit by booms and busts as it is not subject to the self-organisation and self-regulation that characterizes natural operations. However, the fundamental problem is that the usage of natural material wealth of Gaia to operate Tityas is not taken into account in the flow of money. So global bankruptcy is inevitable unless society learns how to make prudent use of the remaining natural wealth.

Entropy is a term that physicists use to describe the dissipation of energy as it flows and does positive work in a physical process. It is common in scientific and engineering circles to explain the consequences of the irreversible energy flows that do (positive) work in systems of civilization (Tityas). The role of friction in doing negative work in that energy dissipation (and the often associated material transformation) is generally taken for granted. The need for maintenance is well recognized but the consequent subsequent inability to replace systems is not. That is an aspect of Real world operations that does not enter in to Myopic considerations.

Entropy increase is tantamount to a decrease in order in a macroscopic sense. Many commentators use it in that sense in discussion of the operations of society. Growth of complexity has been a feature of the manner of operation of society and that has lessened resilience, the ability to cope with the unexpected. This has been likened to a tendency to go from order to disorder, so an increase in entropy. Increasing entropy in natural processes is an immutable principle of natural operations. Applying that principle to operations of society governed by the free will of human decisions is of doubtful veracity. People tend to make decisions based on monetary cost rather than the ecological cost. However, there is no doubt that the operation of society has become more complex. That is what has happened while the conjecture about entropy is about why it has happened. The complexity exists and the question is what can society do to cope with it as economic contraction sets in? Society has lost valuable resilience.

Globalization of trade was expected to be more efficient (in a commercial rather than physical sense) but it has not worked out that way. The volume of goods being shipped around the world has grown exponentially but that has been a means of transferring natural resources from their origin to be dumped in land fill elsewhere after satisfying the lust of some people. However, consumption of natural resources will slow down rapidly as the decline in the availability of fuel oil hits shipping hard below the belt! The facilities in many ports will add to the accumulation of waste as they become redundant.

It is common knowledge that organisms operate during their lifetime by taking in and exhausting gaseous, liquid and solid material. This is an irreversible process in which many materials are transformed. People breathe in air, eat food and drink liquids. They sweat, urinate and defecate to get rid of wastes. The food input contains the energy that does the positive work in operating the body of the organism and allowing the person to do physical and intellectual work. The flow of energy in the operation of the organism made of materials is widely understand These organisms grow from seeds by using some of the material input until reaching maturity which is then followed by senescence and then inevitable demise. These seeds contain intangible information that guides the subsequent tangible development of the organism. So the role of information in instigating the development of the organism and the associated irreversible flow of energy and the transformation and use of material are widely understood. The immutable reality is that time passes, energy flows to waste heat, material transforms to waste in all tangible operations.

This role of energy and materials in the operation of organisms is not, for some incomprehensible reason, taken into account by seemingly knowledgeable people dealing with the operation of that vast organism, Tityas. Bodies of organisms regulate the use of the available energy sensibly. Sleep and hunger serve a useful role. On the other hand, Paras are presently content for elements of Tityas to use the limited stock of material supplying concentrated energy to, on the one hand, meet their wants and on the other to pollute land, sea, air and them while upsetting the climate and the marine ecosystem. Governments and other authoritative sources continue to foster the supply of energy by fair means and foul, with little regulation on its usage. They focus on energy supply even as skyscrapers grow unsustainably. Their attitude reinforces the myth that ravishing the eco system is a sustainable process. Yet these proponents do not deny their own mortality!

Social science is an academic discipline concerned with society and the relationships among individuals within a society. It includes anthropology, economics, political science, psychology and sociology. It deals with the intangible decisions of people. Social science does not take into account what natural laws are continually doing although it has to consider how the consequences affect the decisions of people. The decisions of urban populations differ from those living in the country in many respects. They will have greater difficulty in coping with the inevitable powering down.

Natural science deals with what natural laws always determine what happens in natural and technological materialistic operations. Its objective is to gain understanding of the natural forces that have been operating for eons and their consequences. Physicists focus on physical operations while biologists are scientists who study living organisms and their relationship to their environment. Climatologists strive to understand the extremely complex interaction of a wide range of physical forces and processes using measurements to prove rough mathematical models. The understanding acquired about climate change has been gained by climatologists gathering vast amounts of evidence about a range of operations around the globe to associate with the complex array of mathematical models they have developed and substantiated. They have the advantage in that their models are of physical processes in which the forces acting are self-organizing and self-regulating to a large degree. Social scientists do not have that advantage in modelling the behaviour of intangible financial markets subject to little regulation and to the degree of dis-organization of booms and busts fostered by the whims of bankers and investors having the leverage of large sums of fiat money. Yet governments, economists and powerful interests believe this blarney of social scientists and the masses happily go along with it – whilst they can. The dire prophecies of the physical scientists are taken with a grain of salt at this stage. A cultural revolution is needed in which Real views take over from the Myopic mirage.

Now that rational elements of society understand that rapid climate change is under way there is the movement to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions. This is a sound proposal that has limited usefulness as, at best, it will slightly slow down the irreversible process that ‘clever’ human beings had unknowingly initiated.  However, the wiser elements in society will strive to adapt to the changing influence of climate.

The powerful in society are very adept at marketing the value of economic growth. They aim to satisfy the need of the proletariat for employment without taking into account the real value of the work being done. Society would be much better off with fewer people making, marketing and selling stuff and more addressing the challenge of meeting the needs of the environment and all of its inhabitants.

Some resources are being devoted to preventing the extinction of various species of flora and fauna. However, there is little recognition of the important role these species play in the normal operation of biodiversity. Climate change is altering that view. Many organisms are adapting to this phenomenon more rapidly than humans. This issue is an item to go on the challenge list.

 Little is being done, however, about the damage being done to geodiversity to meet the needs of Tityas. Removal of mountain tops, damming of rivers, installation of pipelines, concreting over fertile soil are just some of the deleterious consequences of the lusts of technology. Remedying this damage is a problem that future generations will find intractable due to the lack of natural resources  when they wake up!

Myopia fosters a dramatic inequality in access to the Earth's resources, coupled with an ideology which sees those resources as nothing more than a playing field for a minority of members of the human species to accumulate monetary wealth without limits.

There are many deleterious facets of the operation of civilization and in combination they will ensure the demise of much of Tityas and a die-off of Paras. This list of deleterious facets identifies factors that contribute to the lack of understanding by people of the fundamental physical principles that govern what happens in the operation of civilization. Discussing these facets in isolation diverts attention from the holistic problem. Environmentalists address only part of the Real issue. Others address population and consumption. But the seriousness of the Real situation is only apparent when all the dots are connected. The challenge is to address those issues with mitigation measures that can help to steer the future.

Scientists have advanced some of the frontiers of knowledge, so illustrating their previous lack of understanding of how nature has been operating for so long. At the same time they do not recognize the fundamental principles that ensure that the operation of Tityas is unsustainable even though these same principles ensure their own demise. Inventors have been clever enough to devise means of using natural forces to use limited natural resources wastefully! They have the ridiculous belief in the ability of systems produced by humans for Tityas to emulate what has slowly evolved naturally in Gaia. Despite these failings, the technical people are more reasonable than the economists who have the belief that the money created out of thin air can actually do positive physical work. Unfortunately, society at large goes along with that hallucination - for now. They enjoy the free lunch but their grandchildren will not like having to pay for it! Can society now meet the challenge of reducing that cost?

 

Scope for society to adapt

 

The emergence of a powerful social movement among the disadvantaged young, powered by the internet, has the potential to drive a culture change that will focus on doing what is necessary to cope with the decline in what nature can provide rather than having a high material standard of living. The failure of society to provide them with satisfactory employment after years of study will give the concerned young  time to learn what knowledgeable people have been saying on the internet for years about how civilization was bound to collapse because of the focus on Myopia and failure to take into account Real world issues. ELAM (Earth’s Lodgers’ Activity Management) movement can gradually develop under the stimulus of pride in being a wise servant of nature rather than a foolish parasite. These smart young will not resist the challenge of showing they can be wiser than their forebears.

This emerging generation of smart Paras will subscribe to the view:

Gaia – the Earth System – is godlike and the giver of all life, the mother’s womb from which all life flows, a loving but firm nurturer, that provides as long as her rules (and her children’s duties) are recognized and respected. Gaia is spirituality that matters, because it is based upon truthful observation, not ancient and irrelevant god myths. Worshiping Earth and her life speaks to the challenges of ecocide, collapsing ecosystems, justice and equity, and truthfully sustaining global ecology, her peoples, and all life based upon what is observably evident.

Ecology is the ultimate truth. Without intact natural ecosystems there can be no life. Humanity is destroying natural life for fleeting comfort for some. It cannot last long. Either the human family changes – rejecting god myths for truthful knowledge – or ecology collapses and we all needlessly die in a final apocalypse. The god-freaks’ self-fulfilling prophecy will have come true, but I can assure you the only heaven is the Earth that will have been lost.

The movement will gain a lot of momentum from the rebellion against the invasion of their privacy by the government security agencies. The impression that the elite will do anything to maintain their dominance has been enough to stimulate the thoughts of the bright sparks in the movement of the true place of human beings in the operation of Gaia. They are stimulated by the challenge of making the senescence of Tityas easier for the surviving Paras.

The new emerging paradigm is premised on a fundamentally different  ethos, in which smart people see themselves not as disconnected, competing units fixated on maximising consumerist conquest over one another (the Myopian view); but as interdependent members of a single human family dependent on nature’s declining bounty (the objective of ELAM). Economies, rather than being assumed to exist in a vacuum of unlimited material expansion (the Myopic view), are seen as embedded in wider ecological framework, such that economic activity for its own sake is recognised as the pathology that it is.

The philosophy of the incumbents of ELAM is to balance their intangible contribution (decisions) with the tangible return (material not financial). They have the view “Nature is my religion, Earth is my temple”. Education will focus on making best possible use of what remains of nature’s bounty and retaining as much as possible of the services provided by the aging Tityas. It is not a green revolution as it focuses on realistically adapting the existing structure of civilization, Tityas, and of Gaia in a pragmatic manner.  It is based on understanding by its incumbents that the irreversible operation of Tityas is an unsustainable process that can only be tolerated by moderation of the ravishing of Gaia. This change in view is fostered by inflation reducing the scope for discretionary spending for most people. The objective is to promote real values like meeting basic needs for all species, education of fundamental principles and discovery of what is really worthwhile, promoting the arts and culture, sharing and giving: the values which psychologists say contribute to well-being and happiness, far more than mere money and things.

 Some industries, as ever, will seize on this change in culture to harness the opportunity to make a profit by repair rather than manufacturing stuff.  They will strive to provide sound transportation measures (such as walking and bike riding) as the existing land, sea and air vehicles become endangered. Their business plans will be based on realistic costing of resource usage, adapting to the decline in the availability of many technological services while coping with the increase in the need for basic skills. This will help in the elimination of wasteful processes while fostering personal pride in doing things well. It will also encourage rationality, frugality and adaptability in the community. It will contribute to the beneficial redeployment of the work force to meeting the ‘needs’ rather than the ‘wants’ of the masses.

Many smart people in the IT industry will have foreseen the bust of the current boom. They understood that the manufacture and operation of the vast multitude of electronic devices is an unsustainable process. So they will seize on the opportunities to help people power down by building up their basic intellectual skills to reduce the dependency on doomed things, like iPods. They will foster hard copy storage of useful information rather than rely on the unsustainable digital storage of megadata. They will follow the lead of those smart people that have started seed banks so that future generations will have access to proven sound food production measures.

Astute politicians will realize that they can gain votes by more clearly focussing on the wellbeing of the population and its life support system rather than the nebulous economic growth. They will foster the sound maintenance of the existing good features of cities rather than the unrealistic (and unsustainable) growth that lines the pockets of the developers and devastates aspects of the life style of the residents as well as degrading the environment.

This Cultural Revolution will not occur over night but it will gain momentum that it derives from its source of spurned young people in the developed countries as it flows to the multitude of ambitious youngsters in the developing countries. The pollution from rampant industrialization has had the positive effect of waking up many people to the negative side of economic growth and the vain pursuit of a high material standard of living without eventually paying the ecological price. Moral and ethical considerations will be more highly valued than the display of monetary wealth.

Awareness of the negative side of trade globalization, the fostering of the manufacture of goods by low paid workers in developing countries to meet the wants of the well off in developed countries, will grow rapidly as increasing fuel oil costs makes shipping these goods uneconomic.

Re-localization will become the boom industry because the social benefits of communities are accentuated by the increasing ecological and economic benefits.

The revolution in employment will have numerous facets. Many of those skilled in operating complex machinery will become redundant. The career prospects for airline pilots will decline as rapidly as the prospects for aeronautical engineers. Birds can manage without this help from Homo sapiens!  The desert cemeteries of redundant airliners will grow. There will be a reduced need for the engineering of advanced forms of cars but that will be offset by the much greater call for maintenance of the declining, aging fleet.  The global new car cemeteries will also grow rapidly despite the attempts of the automotive industry to cope with reality. Shipping will suffer a similar destiny. Singapore has already had to cope with a fleet of worthless container vessels.

Those youngsters who plan to go into physical research to satisfy their curiosity about how natural forces really do operate will not be carried away by innovative measures that advantage only a few. They will focus on understanding how best to use fundamental physical principles to help society at large to avoid many aspects of the final apocalypse. This understanding will help market forces contribute to coping with the powering down.

Businesses will pay for their divestment of natural material wealth. Governments will live up to their responsibility to foster maintenance of the health of the environment for the good of all species, including the human race.

Librarians will face the challenge of extracting some worthwhile knowledge from the vast amount of digital information so it can be stored in a hard copy form that is useful to the emerging generations striving to come to terms with the dissolution of the technological services.

The citizens of cities will find it hard to cope with the loss of many services, including lifts in skyscrapers and mechanical transportation vehicles. But they will gain personally in the improvement in air quality and emergent community values.  The aged and needy will have the priority for usage of the limited essential services.

This new paradigm may well still be nascent, like small seeds, planted in disparate places. But as the Crisis of Civilization accelerates over the coming decades, communities everywhere will become increasingly angry and disillusioned with what went before. But, at the same time, they will strive to show that they can do better as servants of nature rather than pretend to be the master. Education will develop the thought patterns of the young along sounder lines for meeting future challenges.

Limitations

 

Global developments over time have been so varied that social movements and policies that may be effective in some regions are inappropriate in others. The populace of Western countries are in a better position to power down than most of those in developing countries while there is no possibility that most of the population of under developed countries will acquire a reasonable living standard. The globalization that has been a feature of recent developments will inevitably give way to re-localization as communication and transportation capabilities decline.

However, there are two immutable facts that will limit what will happen in the future even if society at large tends to adopt the ELAM philosophy. Firstly, the global population is already too high for natural resources to be able to sustain the growth momentum. A die off this century is certain. Secondly, there is a commitment to use remaining natural resources to operate and maintain the vast aging Tityas infrastructure that cannot possibly be met.  The disintegration of most of this infrastructure this century is certain. The remnant society will have to manage the loss of most of the services (including heating and air conditioning) currently provided. That will be particularly hard in tropical and cold regions.

How well will Paras manage the pain of this senescence of Tityas? Gaia will slowly recover from the malfeasance while the invasive Paras and Preds species will have to adapt as much as possible. The monetary leverage of the Preds will help them for a while but rebellion by the Paras will win that tug o’war.

Conclusion

A Cultural Revolution  fostered  by the ELAM movement through appreciation  of the constraints of the Real world can provide the understanding that will enable humanity to steer the future to a limited extent. A smaller but wiser society can meet the challenge of living with nature in a simpler manner without many of the services currently provided by Tityas.

What smart people, think, decide and do.

Smart people have left their positive implant on civilization over the ages and will continue to do so even during the senescence of our industrial civilization even though circumstances are not encouraging. They know their mortality will give them only a limited amount of time to strive to meet realistic goals. These goals generally depend on circumstances outside of their control. Africans, in the main, have to set their sights lower than most Americans or Australians. Those who are denied a good education through a range of possible factors can be smart by learning from other sources, including from the examples set by people successful in worthwhile fields. Females have to set their sights lower than males in those activities based on bodily strength but not necessarily on degree of smartness. It is not smart for talented musicians to strive for excellence in a sport for which their body is not suited.

Smart people do not just hope that their circumstance will improve. They will strive to make the decisions that will make the best use of their talents and skills to help family and friends to cope with reality. Smart people will not be conned by the media advertisements to buy goods they really do not need. They certainly will not be convinced by the rhetoric of politicians about about the merits of economic growth because they understand the ecological cost of the ravishing by the systems of civilization.

Smart people will strive to extract some wisdom from the vast amount of information produced by the digital revolution.

Thoughts for 2014

Thoughts for the New Year, 2015

By Denis Frith
This is an update of the essay I produced for 2014. Before presenting an update on background and recommendations, I will comment on the impact of what has happened in 2014 on the premises I put forward. The global awareness of  the deleterious impact of climate change and some remedial measures have grown during the year but, surprisingly, Australian 'leaders', still consider the pursuit of economic growth to be more important! Economic growth has slowed down in many countries due to the combination of a number of economic, social, political and ecological reasons accentuated by conflicts in a number of regions, particularly the Middle East, together with the common financial market games played by powerful interests in Eastern as well as Western countries. The recent drop in oil price will hit many economies (particularly Russia and Iran) and industries (including shale oil producers) hard although the masses here will welcome the cheaper fuel for a while only. This oil price hiccup is bound to lead to tumultuous events in the coming year that will have an impact in this country. The lowering price of iron ore is also going to hit the budgets of industry and government hard in the coming year.Unfortunately, there are no signs that our federal and state politicians have a clue about about how things really work. Employment, health and education are important issues but the holistic one is that the technological systems are irreversibly using up natural resources, producing irrevocable waste and devastating the environment. A commentator blamed the loss by the Liberals of the Victorian election on the failure to emphsise liberal values of small government, individual liberty and personal responsibility. His attitude sums up the reason why civilization is doomed. People do not really have the liberty to consume irreplaceable natural resources and produce irrevocable waste. Responsible people do their utmost to live sustainably with what nature provides but the majority irresponsibly consume. Wise government would seek to provide sound leadership rather than promote economic growth without paying the ecological cost as governments worldwide are doing.
I entered an essay " " in a global competition " " without any success even though a Russian anthropologist gave it ten out of ten because the novel points in my essay were consistent with those raised by  some past authorities with out having any impact on the decisions being made by the powerful. I have now offered a prize for the student of my old school, Launceston Grammar, who provides the best response to the challenges raised in my ELAM essay. The intention is to encourage the students to think about the reality that is occurring rather than the delusion fostered by the mainstream. Maybe in 2015 I will have some success in improving understanding of reality by focusing on novel, unrecognized.basic scientific principles.

In my retirement I have researched what civilization has done to its life support system, the environment and the underground material bounty. I have used the internet to gather information and evidence and to peruse the views of informed people in many fields. I now know the fundamental physical principles governing the operation of all the technological infrastructure of civilization. This operation is an unsustainable process that uses up the limited natural material wealth while producing irrevocable material waste in providing the goods and services that society has become so dependent on.  The harm that this process is doing to the environment is another deleterious consequence of this lust by society for a high material standard of living regardless of the real ecological cost. The fact that the marine ecosystem is also being devastated does not receive the warranted consideration, as yet. The billions who rely on fish for protein are striving to ineffectively cope with this marine predicament. Although climate change is causing widespread concern, little effective adaption is being implemented. These examples are only symptoms of the stark reality, but society does not understand the fundamental physical principle that the operation of the systems of civilization is unsustainable. And there is no reason to believe that the powerful or the masses will take this reality into account until it hits home hard in coming years due to numerous deleterious effects. The impact of climate change is only one symptom of the holistic malaise. Many others are being assessed by scientists in their specific fields. Knowledgeable people talk in terms of the collapse of our civilization. They are referring to a process that is under way now and will take place relatively slowly over the coming decades.  ‘Black swan’ events may precipitate local catastrophes that will hasten the demise. The current population is beyond the carrying capacity of Earth so a horrifying die off is certain this century. Ironically, the inevitable demise of the infrastructure (the cities, roads, ports, sewerage systems etc.) will also be a problem that the coming generation will have to face. How will they cope as the availability of food, fuels, electricity and many other services declines?

Individuals, families and even communities can do very little to ameliorate the inevitable powering down of society as a whole. But they can ease the situation for themselves and associates by making sound decisions and by adopting worthwhile practices. My objective in writing this essay is to pass on useful facets of the knowledge I have gained in my research. Many informed people around the globe have put forward sound proposals. I summarize these below to the best of my ability as I want this to be a useful legacy.

I list below issues you will some time address and I then follow with comments on them if I believe I can provide sound insight.   

1.      Attitude

2.      Outlook

3.      Environmental  issues

4.      Family

5.      Residence

6.      Diet

7.      Health issues

8.      Education

9.      Skills

10.  Technology

11.  Life style

12.  Social issues

13.  Career

14.  Retirement

15.  Communication

16.  Relaxation

17.  Traveling

18.  Managing financial affairs

19.  Prognosis

I will not deign to say much on many of these items.  The search mechanisms on the internet can easily provide back up material for these items. I only provide advice where my research provides understanding of details of how the future will be different to what has happened in recent times and, often, what is the general misleading view portrayed by the powerful in society, governments and the media. I want this understanding to help people cope with the inevitable powering down of Australian society by making sound decisions on the issues listed here.  We live in the lucky country but that does not mean that we can look forward to continuance of the economic growth so beloved by politicians – for now. You cannot expect to have a major impact on what happens overall, but you can influence the prospects of family, friends and your community by your behavior and the understanding you promote.

I find it useful in making points to differentiate the common view of what is happening and why from the reality of what is happening to the physical world. I call the former Myopia while the specialists in affected fields and the few realists understand what is actually happening in the Real world. It is becoming increasingly common in learned circles to regard the natural world as being a great organism, termed Gaia, that has slowly evolved and will continue to do so despite the damage that industrial civilization is now doing to it.  Knowledgeable people are calling our times the Anthropocene Era due to what we are doing to our life support system.  I find it useful to term the temporary inanimate organism that is the infrastructure of our civilization (cities, roads, power stations, etc.) Tityas. Tityas is feeding off Gaia for operation and maintenance in an unsustainable process. It is entering its senescence as the natural resources it thrives on decline. Its decline will ensure the end of the Anthropocene Era and will be causing society to power down.

Now for comments on the items listed above.

1.      The current Myopic attitude of most people in Australia is that they strive to make enough money so that they and their family can enjoy a high material standard of living. As the economy contracts in coming years, smart people will embrace an improved life style with less accent on having things and more on worthwhile activities. They will have a real, progressive outlook rather than being conned by the Myopic illusions thrown up on TV and the conditioning they have been given during the years of economic growth. Smart people will employ the precautionary principle because they understand that the boom this century is unsustainable, so living standards will decline even here in Australia. Only time will answer the question of how rapidly, although sound advice can be found on the internet by carefully sorting the wheat from the chaff. The media hype will be of no assistance! And governments will, as usual, respond belatedly to rising predicaments. The slow, belated and misguided response to climate change is but one current example of their ineptitude. The current  crisis in many manufacturing industries is largely due to financial issues but the impact on the workers in these industries and their families is indicative of what  is bound to be a growing problem as the economy contracts due to Real factors.

2.      The general outlook now in Myopia is for continuing progress. Most people hope that the situation for their family will improve. This hope is based on failure to understand that the operation of the technological systems of civilization is an unsustainable process. They do not understand how the Real world operates. This process that uses up limited stored natural resources, produces irrevocable material wastes and degrades the environment in an unsustainable process that contributes to food production, population and infrastructure growth and consumption that cannot last. Toxic wastes are polluting land, sea, air and all organisms, including humans. Knowledgeable people have tagged this as the Anthropocene Era because human decisions in recent times have had such a devastating impact on how the environment operates that it cannot continue and the era will end. Those who understand the stark reality of what is happening will adopt a cautious outlook and accept a prudent policy based on the precautionary principle. They will go to the trouble of taking into account what experts are saying about what is happening in their fields rather than believe the hype of the mainstream media. They will strive to understand how the Real world operates. The collapse of numerous civilizations in the past three thousand years for a combination of ecological, economic, social and political reasons provides only some indication of what lies ahead for the current industrialized civilization because the giant rapacious Tityas now exists. Ironically, a number of authors have published over the years realistic appreciations of what has gone wrong in past and current civilizations without having any impact on the policies of the public and the ‘leaders’ of society. However, these sound views tend to focus on why societies have gone down a path rather than on what consequently irreversibly happened to the supporting structures and environment. The global dependence on using irreplaceable natural resources adds to the problems that previous civilizations were unable to cope with. They did not have a hungry giant Tityas. The nature and rapidity of the gradual collapse of Tityas will vary spatially and temporally during the remainder of this century. The global financial crisis of 2008, the impact of climate change on typhoons, storms, wild fires, floods and droughts, the health crisis afflicting billions of the young and aged and other creatures, the desperate efforts of the oil and gas industry to supply energy by fracking despite the ecological cost are just some of the symptoms of the holistic malaise of this civilization and its spoilt offshoot, Tityas. Smart people will obtain a more realistic outlook by obtaining understanding of what is actually happening from the experts in the various fields by using the search facilities on the internet rather than the Myopia delusion fostered by government, industry and the main stream media. They will realize that symptoms of the collapse of this civilization and the mass extinction are there for those prepared to look – and think. They will embrace the Real view. They will realize that society is facing a dilemma with regard to supply and demand. The current civilization is demanding the consumption of natural resources at an increasingly high rate as the supply declines. Smart people will cope with the inevitable powering down by being frugal as there is little they can do to ameliorate the holistic malaise.

3.      Environmental issues are receiving more attention for good reason. Society is used to coping with the occasional natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, storms, floods and droughts. These are actually becoming more common due to climate change despite the denial of this aspect of Real by some prominent Myopians and very little remedial action. However, this issue is being compounded by the occurrence of unnatural disasters due to the failings of technological systems in Tityas. Often natural and unnatural disasters combine to provide a catastrophe. The tsunami combined with the ineptitude in the design of the Fukushima nuclear power station has produced on ongoing catastrophe for the Japanese and countless others as the toxic radioactive waste streams away in ocean currents. The Chernobyl nuclear plant failure was another unnatural disaster that had grim consequences for many in various countries for a long time. The precautionary principle has not been applied to the numerous nuclear power stations in the US and European countries. So a number of unnatural disasters of this type are possible as these plants age. Safe disposal of the vast amount of nuclear waste that has accumulated is swept under the carpet by the governments simply because they have no sound disposal plan. The disasters due to radioactive nuclear wastes are building up. Greenhouse gases are already causing atmospheric and ocean disasters. But disasters are not the only environmental issues causing increasing concern. Deforestation, desertification, loss of aquifer water and soil fertility, devastation of the marine ecosystem are some of the growing problems that are being compounded by climate change. Australia is particularly vulnerable as it is the dry continent with a small proportion of fertile soil. All one can do is be aware of what is happening to the environment so one can contribute a little to society coping with the ongoing devastation.

4.      The mutual support within a family and local community has been one of the most beneficial factors in many societies for a long time. This has tended to decline in recent times in most countries, partly as the young have adapted to a progressing economy. Changing values have also had an impact with marriage and having children losing its attraction for many. The unsustainable growth in the global population will exert growing pressure on society as a whole but there is no reason for a couple to take it into account in deciding the size of their family. But they should consider whether they will be able to foster a sound upbringing of their children as times inevitably become more difficult and values change. The increasing alcoholism and drug abuse amongst the young is just a symptom of what is coming as the bewildered lose hope of a prosperous standard of living. An additional problem is that people are living longer while the coming contraction of the economy will place an increasing load on medical and care services. Those families and communities that cherish the values of resilience and compassion and embrace sound living will be in a better position to face these challenges. And understanding of what is really happening will reduce the bewilderment.

5.      When considering moving to another abode bear in mind the following issues:

·         Those homes that are very dependent on heating and cooling appliances for comfort in summer and winter will become most unattractive as energy costs more while climate change increases the demand for comfort indoors. Look for homes that are orientated to take advantage of sunshine, no larger than necessary and also have good insulation.

·         The advantages that apartments may seem to have now will dissipate when inevitably power supply declines.  Imagine what it will be like when residents have to walk up many flights of stairs!

·         Suburban sprawl has become endemic in the major cities and has fostered the growing dependence on the car just as the availability of fuel noticeably declines. Regional cities will become more attractive where there are adequate employment options.

·         Buying a home by getting a large mortgage has become a sound financial move in recent times. Those days are coming to an end as economic growth peaks and can become disastrous for many as the decline sets in. Renting may not be financially attractive but the only possibility. Young couples moving in with parents is becoming increasingly common as the financial situation deteriorates.

6.      Mainstream media provides a confusing mix of dietary and cooking information combined with the promotion of fast foods. The very real problem with obesity is already receiving due attention and that will increase as it is now an endemic problem. However, advice about the emerging danger of eating sea foods should also be taken seriously. Radioactive waste from the Fukushima nuclear accident seems to be combining with ocean acidification due to fossil fuel emissions to deleteriously affect many varieties of fish by altering the marine eco system. There are alternative sources of proteins. Growing your own fruit and vegetables will help ease the diet problem significantly, especially as transportation problems will reduce the convenience of conventional shopping malls. Eating out will become less popular so cooking skills will again be a worthwhile acquisition in households.

7.      Concern about health issues is biased by the impact of commercial presentations on medications and announcements of advances in treatment of such problems as breast cancer, diabetes and alzheimer’s disease. Emerging problems due to the increasing contamination of bloodstreams due to the toxic materials in the air, food and water do not yet receive the mainstream attention that is warranted. Radioactive waste from the Fukushima nuclear disaster can well be a major contribution to the impact of toxic materials. Fracking to extract shale oil and gas is contaminating groundwater yet some state governments are supporting proposals for industry to make money by providing energy by this process.  There is little you can do about pollution other than take into account that it is worse in some overseas regions, including many cities. However, you can enjoy the health benefits of sound food and physical activities. The common obesity indicates how many in society have given in to fast food and sedimentary activities. Watching TV and playing video games is a common ailment now but it will decrease in due course as these facilities become rarer. Ironically, the decrease in these distractions will force people to adopt a healthier life style. There is concern that a plague may occur that will have a devastating impact on the global population. The current bubonic plague in Madagascar is an indication that humans are still susceptible to a problem that led to the Black Death in the Middle Ages. Hygienic practices in developed countries lessen that possibility here but bugs like international travel too!

8.      Education will become increasingly important as the values in society change from the emphasis on increasing material standard of living to improving life style with less damage to the environment and a reduction in consumption. The current trend in fostering living with nature will continue to increase in schools. The courses available in universities are bound to focus more on means of adapting to what civilization is actually doing rather than innovative technology and economics. However, the increasing dependence on information technology is a worrying tendency as it is not sustainable. Smart people will be selective about their learning activities so they will have the resilience to cope with trends not foreseen in the mainstream. There will be reversion to many simpler past practices.

9.      Technological developments have greatly reduced the demand on people to have many fundamental skills. The current throw-away society will be replaced by a society facing the challenge of making do with a much lower material standard of living without having adequate coping skills. Fixing things rather than replacing them will again become the norm, where that is practical. But many items are now so constructed that they cannot be repaired. Gone are the days when car owners could maintain their cars for years. Nevertheless, going to the trouble of learning basic useful mechanical, electrical and wood working skills will pay off in due course. This, of course, is in addition to the worthwhile gardening, storing and cooking skills

10.  Society is addicted to the benefits provided by technology without understanding that technology has never created anything! Society is conditioned to believe inventors have devised means to provide the goods and services that are so much a part and parcel of what happens. All technology has ever done is enable the use of natural forces to irreversibly consume natural resources and produce irrevocable material waste in the process of producing the goods and services so beloved by society. Society blesses (and pays well) inventors, innovators and entrepreneurs now but how will they be treated in the future after the peak of everything? Ironically, there is nothing you can do about this delusion. The role of technology will slowly decline as its sustenance, natural resources, become scarcer.

11.  For decades the powerful in society have promoted the view that the market economy will foster the trickling up of material standard of living so to an improving life style for the masses. That has happened to the middle classes in the developed countries and is happening now in the developing countries such as China and India. It is based on the ability of the systems of civilization to divest natural material wealth at a high rate. That rapacious process is coming to an end. Smart people will adopt a frugal life style based on doing rather than consuming while seeking the benefits of localisation. They will avoid the harshest aspects of the inevitable powering down that will infect most of society and they will also have the advantage that they understand why this decline is happening.

12.  Social issues have always been worrisome due to the actions of the repellent minority, often because they are disadvantaged or have unreasonable beliefs.  There is widespread concern at how criminal activities, domestic violence, alcoholism, drug abuse and other anti-social issues are escalating, especially among the young. This malfeasance is bound to grow rapidly as more people become disillusioned as the progress they have been conditioned to expect dies. Smart people will be able to do no more than promote understanding, especially amongst the young, that society will have to learn to live with nature. It is quite possible that many of the brightest youngsters will rise to the challenge of fostering a sound powering down. The least that the oldsters can do is to foster this positive movement among the smart young. However, that can only slightly ameliorate the disintegration of society as a whole.

13.  Choice of career has always been an important issue for the young but the pressures will be changing dramatically in the years ahead. The need to look ahead is becoming more difficult due to the inevitable ending of economic growth together with the declining material standard of living combined with the aging population. Many of the careers that are currently deemed as being worth striving for will turn out to be dead ends. Airline pilots enjoy an attractive image now but that will not last because airliners are a threatened species. The current chaos in the automotive industry in Australia will get no better even though the number of cars being produced globally is still going up. That production rate will peak shortly and then decline rapidly, mainly because the fuel is running out and the necessary materials becoming scarce. Considering a career in mining, manufacturing or marketing would be unwise. Professionals in the legal and financial fields will be under greater pressure to provide reasonable service at a competitive price. The demand for scientists and engineers will focus on maintenance and remedial activities. The demand for education, health, caring and security services will continue but budgetary constraints in a declining economy could reduce prospects. On the other hand, the demand for electricians, carpenters and other skilled tradespeople is bound to increase as people are forced by circumstances to power down.

14.  Retirement is unlikely to be as comfortable and pleasing as retirees are enjoying now. Superannuation is most unlikely to provide adequate finance for the touring that most people look forward too, especially as cars and airlines will no longer be affordable for many. The aging of the population will put pressure on the governments to fund pension, health and caring services as their budgets are hard hit by reduced taxation income as industry fades combined with the cost of debt servicing rising. Smart people will adopt a frugal outlook now so that their retirement will not be stressful.

15.  Society is happily embracing the information revolution without giving any thought to how long it will be possible for industry to manufacture the vast number of computers, smart phones and other electronic devices by using up the depleting rare earth minerals and other irreplaceable materials. They do not understand that it is an unsustainable process that will be entering its senescence shortly. Banking, on-line shopping, social networking, searching for information, entertainment, learning, education, promoting views and stimulating activities are some of the activities  that people around the globe have become addicted too because they have not been educated about reality. How will they cope with the gradual withdrawal of these facilities in the decades ahead? How long will the National Broadband Network be operational? Most people will say that such a situation cannot occur. They will say that science and technology will come up with solutions but that is because they do not understand that technology has never done more than use natural forces to consume natural resources  while producing irrevocable waste material just to provide humans with goods and services for a while. Most people will find it hard to cope with the decline in the availability of these services and they will not be able to expect much help from governments or industry.

16.  Stress will become an increasing problem as people find it hard to accept that the good times are becoming fanciful images. The ability to relax will, consequently, become a more useful therapeutic measure. But the current emphasis on relaxing by watching TV, playing video games or other measures depending on technological systems cannot continue. There will be a reversion to focussing on artistic pursuits, hobbies, sporting endeavours, games such as chess and social discourse for relaxation. Ironically, the conversion of many redundant shops in shopping malls to meeting places will foster the social discourse that used to be so common in many countries.

17.  The current trend on travelling around the world for pleasure as well as business is built on the facility of airliners. And that will not last. Those who have the desire or need and the means should do it in the near future as the ability to do so will decline rapidly. It would be unwise to put such a move on the agenda for retirement. The Boeing Dreamliner, Airbus 340 and other airliners consume vast quantities of jet fuel during their limited lifetimes. There is not enough acreage for biofuels to meet more than a small proportion of the insatiable appetite of armada of airliners. Land and sea transports will continue to demand their share of this scarce natural resource.

18.  Managing financial affairs will change profoundly in the coming decades. Society has become conditioned by the rapid economic growth of recent times to make financial decisions that they could rue in the not too distant future. The investment boom will have encouraged them to fallaciously believe that their superannuation will finance a pleasant retirement while being able to support the pretensions of their family. The equity in their home will be supporting that unwise presumption. Financial managers will have to become more circumspect in their advice as money loses its potency.

19.  Society has become very dependent on the services provided by the systems of industrial civilization. This particularly so in the cities. The gradual withdrawal of these services in the decades ahead will have a profound impact on many people. The rich elite will have the monetary leverage to cope with the powering down. The smart people will use their knowledge to make sound proactive decisions. But the overall situation will be catastrophic. That is the prognosis based on the understanding of how the Real world operates.

The understanding that I have embodied in this essay is grim but based on the reality of what happens rather than what people want to believe. So let the points I have made here provide you with guidance in the years ahead.