Beat the odds

We are continually being challenged to beat the odds. Headlines about lotto wins raises the possibility "Why not me?" despite the odds. The pokies are an easy way to pass the time that hopefully will throw out some cash - to the lucky few. Scratchies and lotteries attract a bevy of hopefuls. Many of those who go to the races hope that they will back enough winners to pay for the outing. But it is the bookies who have the odds on their side

 Putting money into superannuation in order to have a pleasing retirement is not seen to be a gamble. It is called an investment. Gambling is frowned on  by many in the community but investment is regarded as a fair way to make, rather than earn, money. The Melbourne 'Age' even has a section on Wednesday devoted to  that topic. It is a good prospect whilst the economy is growing but the odds have changed following the GFC. Of course, the financial advisers continue to make money by taking their cut for the service, good or bad, that they provide.

Many people are enjoying a comfortable retirement as the result of a growing economy during their working days. The politicians providing seemingly convincing arguments that the current sovereign debt problems in the financial market will be overcome by their decisions. Thousands of Americans, Greeks, Cypriots, Irish, Italians, Spanish, Portuguese wonder how the dice manged to get things so wrong for them in recent times.   

Many pundits proclaim how it is possible to have lucky runs. They have this belief because they do not understand that there is no connection between the spinning of a wheel and the previous one. They should toss a coin. Suppose the tossing produced three heads in a row. Some people think that heads are having a run so the next toss is likely to be a head. Others will quote the 'reversion to a mean' and expect a tail to be more likely. Neither is right! The result of the next toss cannot possibly be predicted. A complex mathematical model could calculate the dynamics of the spinning coin but it would not predict the outcome because the impulse applied was unknowable so could not be input to the model.

Entering into tipping competitions has become popular as people cannot resist the endeavor to show how smart they are in a harmless pastime. Some, with a mathematical bent, devise methods that use statistical principles in the expectation that this approach will produce better tipping performance than what tipsters relying on their skill can achieve. In soccer games with three possible outcomes, home win, draw or away win, good tipping could well have a success rate of 60 to 70 per cent. This rate will depend on an unknown combination of skill and luck because the outcome of matches is unpredictable to a large extent. A mathematical method may be good enough to out perform the vast majority of skilful tipsters so the mathematicians believe they can beat the odds and win the competition. That is spurious logic as the performance of a method will have an unknowable degree of luck. So will all the many skilful tipsters. Some will be very lucky and so have an unexpectedly and unrepeatable high success rate. The mathematicians will learn the hard way that their methods cannot beat the odds.
Naturally, many people know how to beat the odds. They embrace a fugal life style enhanced by family and friends in close knit communities. They obtain satisfaction by using their personal skills in gardening, cooking and repairing things, often for others. Without using the term, they embrace the 'precautionary principle' even though their governments do not.

Technofix delusion

It is amusing to read of the belief in the ability of technology to solve emerging problems of civilization. Machines are being invented to ease the mining of natural resources as they become scarcer. Cars, trucks, trains, airliners and ships are considered to be indispensable forms of transport for trade, tourism and everyday life even though they all have limited lives and they are using up irreplaceable fuel and materials. Cities provide a wide range of what the populace regard as indispensable  services by using irreplaceable natural resources and producing pollution of land, sea, air and all organisms, including us. Most city dwellers can take shelter, food, water, electricity and sanitation for granted - for now. Avast range of electronic devices have increased the ability for social discourse, online purchase of goods and conduct of financial matters. iPods and the like are deemed by the young to be a necessary accessory. These electronic devices are also made of irreplaceable natural resources, use up energy and have limited lives. They are, like cars, airliners, container vessels, doomed species. Society will find it hard to cope with the withdrawal symptoms.

Society is addicted to all these facets of the technofix. They cannot imagine how they will make do without them! They hold the inventors in high esteem. They believe these inventions form the basis for the sustainable progress of our civilization. The masses are encouraged to believe this delusion by big business chasing the dollar and politicians promoting economic growth - regardless of the ecological cost or the deleterious consequences. Very few, even amongst scientists, understand that all science and technology has ever done is make use of some of the potential of the natural forces that have existed for eons. Technology has never created natural forces or natural states.

The media reinforces this common view as they highlight all signs of advances in knowledge by scientists and all innovative devices. They never mention the role of technology in using fossil fuels, so producing the emissions that have initiated irreversible climate change. The damage done to biodiversity by many technological systems does not make headlines. And toxic wastes produced by technology is harming land, sea, air and organisms, including humans.

The scientists who capture the headlines are those who appear to be advancing the frontiers of knowledge. The populace at large do not realize that the recent findings of scientists in many fields are really accentuating how little understanding we have of how nature has operated for eons. Technology has produced many innovative products by using natural forces in innovative ways, with unintended consequences.

Information overload swamps understanding reality

 The extremely rapid increase in information in recent times due to the phenomenal development of the ability electronics to store vast amounts of information in a digital form and process it at astounding speeds is overwhelming. A few companies, such as Google and Palantir, provide information processing and search services for the community at large as well as for government bodies.

Many people bless this easy access to information and associated visual and aural recordings for entertainment, social discourse, management and education purposes. Others are overwhelmed by the rapidity of the growth of virtual civilization as they find it hard to learn how to handle passwords and the many other novel essential issues to be crammed into the memory.

The media makes a lot of how scientists are advancing the frontiers of knowledge often with the help of the greatly improved ability to handle vast amounts of information, control major experiments and run complex mathematical models. There is no doubt that science and technology has underpinned the high standard of living that many people now enjoy.

However, society has a myopic view of the development of civilization. They welcome the advances without really understanding of how it has come about. The reality is that the systems of civilization irreversibly use up limited natural resources and produce irrevocable waste during their limited life time. Technology only makes use of natural forces to produce goods and services. It has never created any material even when it has enabled the production of many novel items that society happily use without understanding the basic physical principle limiting what civilization can deliver.

Ironically, the information revolution is not helping society to gain the wisdom of knowing that the operation of civilization is unsustainable. The vast amount and complexity of this information hides the simple physical principle that the demise of industrial civilization is certain within this century. And scientists are so preoccupied with their specialties that they do not provide the populace with understanding of the holistic malaise that is the operation of industrial civilization. The slow awakening to the damaging impact of using fossil fuels to supply energy is now awakening society to some extent. Irreversible rapid climate change is one unintended consequence of that lack of understanding.

Bitcoin games

 With the chaos in the financial market causing so much concern, it is not surprising that there is a move to adopt a financial system that is not subject to the manipulation of governments and banks. Bitcoin is deemed by some to be the answer to the predicament posed by the growing booms and busts associated with global currencies.

However, the expectations of the proponents of bitcoin are not being realized. The volatility makes it almost useless while ,as may be expected, numerous rogues are scamming the system to gain unfair advantage of its lack of resilience.

It is amusing to contemplate the arrogance of those people who believe they can invent laws to handle intangible symbols of value in a sound systematic manner. They have this belief because they are used to complex natural systems that behave in a sound systematic way and they think that humans are clever enough to be able to emulate natural forces. The operation of organisms, including humans, provides them with examples of the wonders of nature. Scientists are renowned for advancing the frontiers of knowledge when what they are really doing is acknowledging that there is still a lot they do not know about how natural systems operate after eons of evolution. To top this lack of understanding off, there is widespread belief in seemingly informed forums in the ability of mathematics to describe natural operations. Mathematics is a system devised by humans to roughly describe some natural operations.

So the bitcoin concept is based on a foolish misunderstanding of the ability of to develop a complex resilient system rapidly from scratch. The current financial market has its inherent weaknesses but its development over centuries has resulted in a degree of responsiveness, acceptance and resilience that bitcoin cannot possibly attain, despite the efforts of its proponents.

Denis Frith

drugs

The use of drugs to enhance the ability of sports persons is grabbing the headlines. These drugs influence the ability of sports people to win. Lance Armstrong grabbed the headlines for a while but many addictions, including alcohol, have embraced by those who could afford the legal and illegal bolsters to their capabilities.

These drugs are substances that affect bodily and mental operations of the consumer in a way that is generally understood. Most people accept that they can be useful with moderation. Ironically, most people have views on these drugs while they ignore drugs that do much more harm.

The infatuation with the drug that is money is a very common affliction that is spreading rapidly to the emerging middle class in developing countries. It entails the consumption of natural resources without paying the ecological cost, the divestment of natural material wealth. It invariably results in the production of material wastes that pollute land, sea, air and organisms, including us. Society hold the rich in high esteem even they are the ones that have the greatest leverage of money to devastate the environment which is our life support system.

The global financial crisis has reduced the savings of many people and the withdrawal symptoms are hitting hard.

Black Swan event

Nassim Taleb coined the term 'Back Swan event' to describe events that are unexpected by people. This definition needs to be qualified as to who finds the event to be unexpected. The earthquake that hit Japan a couple of years ago was not expected by the residents. It was a 'Black Swan' event as far as they were concerned. But it was not to the scientists who were aware of the fault lines in the region. They could not predict when an earthquake would occur but they knew one was likely.

Many well off people lost money in the GFC (global financial crisis) of 2008. It was a Black Swan event as far as they were concerned. But it was not to bankers and investors who understood that the boom in the financial market was likely to bust. They made money!

Society, particularly those in government and industry, believe in economic growth. They do not understand that all the technological systems that provide the goods and services society is addicted to using irreversibly use up the limited natural material capital. That view is a characteristic of Myopia. What is actually happening is the characteristic of the Real world. Climate change and the depletion of natural resources is a Real symptom of what Myopia has done wrong. Unfortunately, society will have cope with what they consider to be a Black Swan event because they have been educated to believe that Homo sapiens make sound decisions.

The Ten Laws of Ecolodynamics

I assert that

The operations of materialistic civilization entail the irreversible consumption of limited irreplaceable natural material resource capital, an unsustainable bio-geo-chemical-physical process

sums up what is happening to the infrastructure of our civilization, Tityas, and its life-support eco systems in Gaia. It is a novel assertion although it is based on sound scientific principles backed by irrefutable arguments and experiential evidence. It is not yet a theorem (established principle) but this is because of lack of understanding of how natural physical forces always control what happens in operations involving materials. It is not even widely recognized in scientific circles. In fact there are a number of seemingly authoritative people who attempt to repudiate it. The purpose of this essay is to provide reasoned argument, for consideration by skeptics, backing this and the other assertions . This one can be regarded as the First Law of Ecolodynamics as it relates to the dynamics of the operation of complex technological and ecological systems.

1. Consumption of natural material capital

The well-known Laws of Thermodynamics embrace some aspects of what happens in natural and industrial materialistic (physical) processes.  They originally covered only energy flows (fluxes) but their applicability has been expanded in some scientific considerations to cover the tendency of systems and organisms to go from order to disorder as the processes seek equilibrium with the surroundings during development. The prior operation leading to order and the consequent potential (to subsequently go to disorder) is not embraced by the Second Law of Thermodynamics even though there are many well-known examples of that up and down process. The growth, maturity and then senescence of the human body is an example.This definition would clarify the circumstances where the term ‘negentropy’ is used by some authorities. The tendency for a system made of materials to increase in order, through the input of materials, some of which supply energy, from the surroundings, should be regarded according to Georgescu-Roegen as the Fourth Law of Thermodynamics. It would be more appropriate to call it the Second  Law of Mass dynamics where the First Law is the well known conservation of mass.

A corollary to the First Law is:

Technological systems introduced into civilization often bring into play physical and chemical forces in an innovative and irreversible manner that in many cases have had unintended deleterious and irreversible consequences.

This is deemed here to be the Second Law. The prime example of the application of the Second Law is the contribution of the emissions from fossil fuel combustion to the rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Seven others that are being seriously examined by environmentalists are the ozone layer, freshwater use, movement of nitrogen and phosphorus, land use for crops, aerosols (haze and particulates), chemical pollution

Another  corollary to the assertion (potential theorem) above is

The components and structures of materialistic civilization have limited lives as they are continually subject to natural destructive forces such as wind, rain and friction. Their existence constitutes a commitment to consume natural material capital for their operation and maintenance as long as that is possible. This also is an unsustainable physical process.

This can be considered to be the Third Law of Ecolodynamics. What will inevitably happen to the multitude of global cities and associated infrastructure is one issue impacted by the Third Law.

A Fourth Law is that:

Human beings have a natural capability to reproduce. This reproduction capability, as with all organisms, has evolved. However, in recent times human reproduction has become unsustainably parasitic because of the predatory usage of natural resources and associated devastation of the environment  coupled with a fallacious belief in the supremacy of the human race.

Population growth is causing concern in many quarters even as it is stimulated by economic growth and lack of understanding of the long-term consequences.

Another corollary (potential theorem) is

Natural laws have always determined  (and will continue to do so) what tangible materialistic operations in nature and in the systems of civilization are possible. Intangible information can only activate some of these potential tangible operations.

This, the Fifth Law, identifies the role played by information in activating operations. It is analogous to the brain sending messages to parts in the body. An extension of that Law is

The decisions made by humans about materialistic operations are constrained within the limits imposed by the tools and services provided by the systems and infrastructure of materialistic civilization. The achievements of the decision-making process will decline as the potential capabilities of materialistic civilization declines.

This can be considered to be the Sixth Law of Ecolodynamics. These decisions are largely based on financial market forces for now because the physical limitations have yet to strike home. The elite of society will probably find it harder to cope with the consequences of the Sixth Law than the disadvantaged global masses. The elite are currently able to take the goods and services provided by the infrastructure for granted. The First, Second and Third Laws will ensure that all and sundry, including the elite, will have to power down.

The Seventh Law of Ecolodynamics contributes to the list of laws governing the both the constructive and destructive operation of civilization.

The human race has been endowed through evolution with unique, decision-making  capabilities lacking in sound self-organizing and self-regulating attributes

There is nothing novel in that assertion but it needs to be taken into account in any holistic examination of what is happening and why. The Fifth, Sixth and Seventh Laws are on the other side of the balance sheet to the first four. They currently govern the operation of society as the first four laws are not yet common knowledge but that lack of understanding will diminish as impact of the stark, physical reality grows.

A corollary is:

Circumstances have enabled a proportion of society to be predators who prey on the masses as well as the eco systems.  Their operations are akin to a cancer in society and act as an ecological parasite.

This Eighth Law identifies one of the holistic factors having a major impact on what is happening and why. Past colonial powers have been usurped in recent times by military and financial hegemony but the degree of predation has not been markedly reduced. Treatment of this cancer requires the emergence of a degree of wisdom that appears to be foreign to human nurture.

This lack of wisdom is illustrated by the impact of the Ninth Law

Many of the activities initiated by humans have had unintended consequences due to lack of understanding of how some of the immutable natural laws influence materialistic operations

The use of fossil fuels to provide energy has had the unintended consequence of causing rapid climate change. That is but one example of the impact of the Ninth Law due to lack of knowledge. Another is the pollution of land, sea, air and all organisms be the material wastes produced by the operation of the systems of civilization

Finally, the Tenth Law states a simple physical reality that constrains what can happen

Continuing exponential growth is not possible

Governments, economists, media commentators espouse the virtues of growth, a process that is unsustainable for simple reasons that seem to be beyond their comprehension.  Continuing growth of the materialistic systems comprising Tityas is not possible for simple, physical reasons (First and Third Laws). Continuing population growth, despite reproduction, is also not possible for ecological and social reasons (Fourth Law). Continuing intangible monetary growth is possible but not the associated value of the money. Information growth will continue as the electronic devices profligate – for a while. But the wisdom content will not as society strives to cope with what has gone wrong.

The Laws cover the constructive and destructive influences on the operation of civilization. The changing balance of these forces represents a tug-o-war that the tangible destructive forces will eventually win. Materialistic civilization is entering its senescence while its inhabitants, human and others, are being forced to power down with the disadvantaged leading the way.

Denis Frith