Las Vegas has a hard won reputation as the gamblers' paradise. The multitude of glitzy casinos do their best to entice the multitude of tourists to risk their dollars in a variety of games.
But Las Vegas is a synthetic city in the Nevada desert. It has developed behind nothing more than the common lust to make money the easy way. However, even such edifices cannot operate without an adequate continuing supply of water. The Hoover Dam was built on the Colorado River as a make work activity during the Great Depression. This created Lake Mead which provided the source for the water essential for the construction, operation and maintenance of all the infrastructure, including the multitude of casinos, of Las Vegas as well as the needs of the populace.
But the authorities got their sums wrong! If the water out exceeds the water in then the container will empty and then the water out will dry up. That is what is happening to Lake Mead and panic is setting in amongst the authorities and citizens of Las Vegas. It is ironical that the sponsors of Las Vegas gambled and are now losing much more than those who have been enticed there by the false promise of easy money.
Of course, Las Vegas is only an example of the muddled thinking of Homo sapiens that has resulted in the intractable devastation of Planet Earth for the sake of the illusory wants of some of the global population.
Showing posts with label gambling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gambling. Show all posts
Saturday, May 11, 2013
Saturday, April 20, 2013
Beat the odds
We are continually being challenged to beat the odds. Headlines about lotto wins raises the possibility "Why not me?" despite the odds. The pokies are an easy way to pass the time that hopefully will throw out some cash - to the lucky few. Scratchies and lotteries attract a bevy of hopefuls. Many of those who go to the races hope that they will back enough winners to pay for the outing. But it is the bookies who have the odds on their side
Putting money into superannuation in order to have a pleasing retirement is not seen to be a gamble. It is called an investment. Gambling is frowned on by many in the community but investment is regarded as a fair way to make, rather than earn, money. The Melbourne 'Age' even has a section on Wednesday devoted to that topic. It is a good prospect whilst the economy is growing but the odds have changed following the GFC. Of course, the financial advisers continue to make money by taking their cut for the service, good or bad, that they provide.
Many people are enjoying a comfortable retirement as the result of a growing economy during their working days. The politicians providing seemingly convincing arguments that the current sovereign debt problems in the financial market will be overcome by their decisions. Thousands of Americans, Greeks, Cypriots, Irish, Italians, Spanish, Portuguese wonder how the dice manged to get things so wrong for them in recent times.
Many pundits proclaim how it is possible to have lucky runs. They have this belief because they do not understand that there is no connection between the spinning of a wheel and the previous one. They should toss a coin. Suppose the tossing produced three heads in a row. Some people think that heads are having a run so the next toss is likely to be a head. Others will quote the 'reversion to a mean' and expect a tail to be more likely. Neither is right! The result of the next toss cannot possibly be predicted. A complex mathematical model could calculate the dynamics of the spinning coin but it would not predict the outcome because the impulse applied was unknowable so could not be input to the model.
Entering into tipping competitions has become popular as people cannot resist the endeavor to show how smart they are in a harmless pastime. Some, with a mathematical bent, devise methods that use statistical principles in the expectation that this approach will produce better tipping performance than what tipsters relying on their skill can achieve. In soccer games with three possible outcomes, home win, draw or away win, good tipping could well have a success rate of 60 to 70 per cent. This rate will depend on an unknown combination of skill and luck because the outcome of matches is unpredictable to a large extent. A mathematical method may be good enough to out perform the vast majority of skilful tipsters so the mathematicians believe they can beat the odds and win the competition. That is spurious logic as the performance of a method will have an unknowable degree of luck. So will all the many skilful tipsters. Some will be very lucky and so have an unexpectedly and unrepeatable high success rate. The mathematicians will learn the hard way that their methods cannot beat the odds.
Naturally, many people know how to beat the odds. They embrace a fugal life style enhanced by family and friends in close knit communities. They obtain satisfaction by using their personal skills in gardening, cooking and repairing things, often for others. Without using the term, they embrace the 'precautionary principle' even though their governments do not.
Putting money into superannuation in order to have a pleasing retirement is not seen to be a gamble. It is called an investment. Gambling is frowned on by many in the community but investment is regarded as a fair way to make, rather than earn, money. The Melbourne 'Age' even has a section on Wednesday devoted to that topic. It is a good prospect whilst the economy is growing but the odds have changed following the GFC. Of course, the financial advisers continue to make money by taking their cut for the service, good or bad, that they provide.
Many people are enjoying a comfortable retirement as the result of a growing economy during their working days. The politicians providing seemingly convincing arguments that the current sovereign debt problems in the financial market will be overcome by their decisions. Thousands of Americans, Greeks, Cypriots, Irish, Italians, Spanish, Portuguese wonder how the dice manged to get things so wrong for them in recent times.
Many pundits proclaim how it is possible to have lucky runs. They have this belief because they do not understand that there is no connection between the spinning of a wheel and the previous one. They should toss a coin. Suppose the tossing produced three heads in a row. Some people think that heads are having a run so the next toss is likely to be a head. Others will quote the 'reversion to a mean' and expect a tail to be more likely. Neither is right! The result of the next toss cannot possibly be predicted. A complex mathematical model could calculate the dynamics of the spinning coin but it would not predict the outcome because the impulse applied was unknowable so could not be input to the model.
Entering into tipping competitions has become popular as people cannot resist the endeavor to show how smart they are in a harmless pastime. Some, with a mathematical bent, devise methods that use statistical principles in the expectation that this approach will produce better tipping performance than what tipsters relying on their skill can achieve. In soccer games with three possible outcomes, home win, draw or away win, good tipping could well have a success rate of 60 to 70 per cent. This rate will depend on an unknown combination of skill and luck because the outcome of matches is unpredictable to a large extent. A mathematical method may be good enough to out perform the vast majority of skilful tipsters so the mathematicians believe they can beat the odds and win the competition. That is spurious logic as the performance of a method will have an unknowable degree of luck. So will all the many skilful tipsters. Some will be very lucky and so have an unexpectedly and unrepeatable high success rate. The mathematicians will learn the hard way that their methods cannot beat the odds.
Naturally, many people know how to beat the odds. They embrace a fugal life style enhanced by family and friends in close knit communities. They obtain satisfaction by using their personal skills in gardening, cooking and repairing things, often for others. Without using the term, they embrace the 'precautionary principle' even though their governments do not.
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