Dire times ahead! That is not the message that the young want to hear - but it is the stark reality that society will have to cope with. Industrial civilization has used up so much of the stored natural material wealth, including oil, that it is becoming so scarce that supply will not be able to meet demand in the future. Technology has provided the means to use this natural wealth but not the means to handle the material wastes produced or to repair the ecological damage that industrialization has done. So now the vast, aging infrastructure is addicted to using up the limited natural material capital as it runs out. Surviving future generations will curse their inability to do no more than make decisions about how to power down as the goods and services provided by civilization decline. They need a Grand Challenge Manifesto to guide them on the way down.
Denis Frith
Friday, August 10, 2012
Curiosity rover and the other side of the coin.
The achievement of the NASA team in sending Curiosity Rover to Mars is indicative of the high level of technical expertize that humans are able to reach. It is therefore surprising that our scientists do not seem to understand the fundamental principle that has governed physical operations here on Earth for eons. Natural laws have always determined what can possibly happen. They will continue to do so despite the research and development efforts of our scientists. The natural laws are inviolate.
If our scientists had understood that side of the coin, many of the unintended deleterious consequences of the development of civilization could have been avoided. However, that has not happened so we have the Curiosity Rover as a positive being more than offset by rapid, irreversible climate change, acidification of the oceans, pollution of land, sea, air and people as negatives.
Ironically, will not be long before scientific effort will be primarily focused on trying to remedy some of the problem created by industrialization. These efforts will have to make use of some of the available natural forces.
Denis Frith
If our scientists had understood that side of the coin, many of the unintended deleterious consequences of the development of civilization could have been avoided. However, that has not happened so we have the Curiosity Rover as a positive being more than offset by rapid, irreversible climate change, acidification of the oceans, pollution of land, sea, air and people as negatives.
Ironically, will not be long before scientific effort will be primarily focused on trying to remedy some of the problem created by industrialization. These efforts will have to make use of some of the available natural forces.
Denis Frith
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Truth and certainty
Many commentators on the global economic and ecological scene wishfully call for truth and certainty. Is it a bull market or is it a bear market? Will the bail out of Greece (or Spain or Italy or California) work? Is the Chinese economy peaking? Will India be able to manage the common power failures? Will the current US drought do irreparable damage to world food production? Is there any way to stop global warming?
Many pundits address the pros and cons of all these issues. Confusion reigns! Complexity grows and resilience declines. The bewildered masses strive to make do despite the apparent uncertainty engendered by all the blather. They are at a loss because they have not been told the truth.
This is not surprising because the natural forces that control what happens do not have a voice. They have just acted for eons, despite that actions of human technological tools irreversibly drawing down on the limited natural material capital. As a consequence, the truth is the certainty this century of demise of industrialized civilization. No rhetoric, no decisions, of humanity can change that destiny.
Denis Frith
Many pundits address the pros and cons of all these issues. Confusion reigns! Complexity grows and resilience declines. The bewildered masses strive to make do despite the apparent uncertainty engendered by all the blather. They are at a loss because they have not been told the truth.
This is not surprising because the natural forces that control what happens do not have a voice. They have just acted for eons, despite that actions of human technological tools irreversibly drawing down on the limited natural material capital. As a consequence, the truth is the certainty this century of demise of industrialized civilization. No rhetoric, no decisions, of humanity can change that destiny.
Denis Frith
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Divestment of natural capital
George Monbiot published a piece, The Great Imposters, in the Guardian of 7th August 2012 in which he describes the trend to commodify natural capital so market forces will determine their usage.The
argument in favour of this approach is coherent and plausible.
Business currently treats the natural world as if it is worth
nothing. Pricing nature and incorporating that price into the
cost of goods and services creates an economic incentive for its
protection. However, it does not take into account the fact that many components of natural capital, such as oil, soil fertility, phosphorus, the marine ecosystem and the climate are being irreversibly degraded by the operations of the systems of civilization. Incorporating the ecological cost into business plans is a logical improvement on what has been done in the past but it still does not take into account the divestment of the natural capital. It is an unsustainable process so future generations will learn the hard way how unwise their forebears were.
Denis Frith
Denis Frith
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Science and technology myth
We have been entranced over the years with myths.They tend to add spice to our lives as we spread the around amongst our friends. They can be quite entertaining. But they can also cause a lot of problems.
The biggest myth has been around for centuries It is the myth that science and technology (S&T) can create things and systems useful to society. You may say that is not a myth as you think of the numerous items that science and technology has produced. That is right. S&T has produced a bewildering array of systems, devices and services - by employing natural forces to irreversibly use some of the limited natural material resources. S&T has not created any material thing The only thing it has created is the anthropocentric illusion that humans can control the erection, operation and maintenance of the temporary edifice of civilization and the provision of natural services.
Ironically, as structural problems emerge, the powerful in society vainly urge the use of S&T to solve the problems that S&T has produced. They want S&T to chase its tail!
The biggest myth has been around for centuries It is the myth that science and technology (S&T) can create things and systems useful to society. You may say that is not a myth as you think of the numerous items that science and technology has produced. That is right. S&T has produced a bewildering array of systems, devices and services - by employing natural forces to irreversibly use some of the limited natural material resources. S&T has not created any material thing The only thing it has created is the anthropocentric illusion that humans can control the erection, operation and maintenance of the temporary edifice of civilization and the provision of natural services.
Ironically, as structural problems emerge, the powerful in society vainly urge the use of S&T to solve the problems that S&T has produced. They want S&T to chase its tail!
Monday, July 9, 2012
Reality 101
Gaia has accumulated an amazing range of biodiversity, geodiversity and stored natural resources over eons with the help of input of energy from the Sun and the operation of natural forces. The hydrological (water) and other cycles has aided the slowly increasing order in the eco systems.
That was the reality for ages. Then Homo sapiens learned how to use some natural forces to consume a proportion of Gaia's bounty to create the gigantic temporary organism, Tityas, that produces the services on which society has become dependent. That is the new reality. But this consumption process is not sustainable. The Anthropocene era will inevitably end this century. Gaia will continue to slowly evolve after recovering from Tityas' damaging operations while surviving Homo sapiens relearn how to cope with what remains of Gaia's bounty.
That was the reality for ages. Then Homo sapiens learned how to use some natural forces to consume a proportion of Gaia's bounty to create the gigantic temporary organism, Tityas, that produces the services on which society has become dependent. That is the new reality. But this consumption process is not sustainable. The Anthropocene era will inevitably end this century. Gaia will continue to slowly evolve after recovering from Tityas' damaging operations while surviving Homo sapiens relearn how to cope with what remains of Gaia's bounty.
Spurious wealth
Many people around the globe delight in the apparent wealth that has been generated by the systems of civilization, particularly in recent times. Eastern countries are now emulating the West. The population enjoying a high material standard of living is growing exponentially. Cites are springing up in many regions. Car, airliner and container vessel production is reaching plague proportions.
This wealth is spurious. It comes at the cost of devastation of the long-established natural wealth. Society does not take the irreversible consequence of this devastation into account in considering future prospects. Concerned people note the decline of numerous natural resources, including oil. Others note what has happened to biodiversity and the deleterious impact. The extinction of many species has occasioned a little remedial action. The pollution of land, sea, air and its effect on human health is causing some concern and a little action. This includes vain attempts to slow down irreversible, rapid climate change. Few, however, connect the dots to provide understanding of what the operations of civilization is doing to the natural wealth.
This delusion cannot continue as natural forces continue to degrade the structures of civilization. That is the output side of the equation, the consequences of operations. The other side of the equation is the unsustainable input of natural resources.
The demise of the spurious tangible, materialistic wealth of civilization is certain. The nebulous, intangible financial wealth will dissipate. The current nebulous comments on the volatility of finances of EU countries is but a prelude to the chaos to come. And the masses will bewildered as their hard won savings lose worth.
Denis Frith
This wealth is spurious. It comes at the cost of devastation of the long-established natural wealth. Society does not take the irreversible consequence of this devastation into account in considering future prospects. Concerned people note the decline of numerous natural resources, including oil. Others note what has happened to biodiversity and the deleterious impact. The extinction of many species has occasioned a little remedial action. The pollution of land, sea, air and its effect on human health is causing some concern and a little action. This includes vain attempts to slow down irreversible, rapid climate change. Few, however, connect the dots to provide understanding of what the operations of civilization is doing to the natural wealth.
This delusion cannot continue as natural forces continue to degrade the structures of civilization. That is the output side of the equation, the consequences of operations. The other side of the equation is the unsustainable input of natural resources.
The demise of the spurious tangible, materialistic wealth of civilization is certain. The nebulous, intangible financial wealth will dissipate. The current nebulous comments on the volatility of finances of EU countries is but a prelude to the chaos to come. And the masses will bewildered as their hard won savings lose worth.
Denis Frith
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