Thoughts for the New Year, 2015
By Denis
Frith
This is an update of the essay I produced for 2014. Before presenting an update on background and recommendations, I will comment on the impact of what has happened in 2014 on the premises I put forward. The global awareness of the deleterious impact of climate change and some remedial measures have grown during the year but, surprisingly, Australian 'leaders', still consider the pursuit of economic growth to be more important! Economic growth has slowed down in many countries due to the combination of a number of economic, social, political and ecological reasons accentuated by conflicts in a number of regions, particularly the Middle East, together with the common financial market games played by powerful interests in Eastern as well as Western countries. The recent drop in oil price will hit many economies (particularly Russia and Iran) and industries (including shale oil producers) hard although the masses here will welcome the cheaper fuel for a while only. This oil price hiccup is bound to lead to tumultuous events in the coming year that will have an impact in this country. The lowering price of iron ore is also going to hit the budgets of industry and government hard in the coming year.Unfortunately, there are no signs that our federal and state politicians have a clue about about how things really work. Employment, health and education are important issues but the holistic one is that the technological systems are irreversibly using up natural resources, producing irrevocable waste and devastating the environment. A commentator blamed the loss by the Liberals of the Victorian election on the failure to emphsise liberal values of small government, individual liberty and personal responsibility. His attitude sums up the reason why civilization is doomed. People do not really have the liberty to consume irreplaceable natural resources and produce irrevocable waste. Responsible people do their utmost to live sustainably with what nature provides but the majority irresponsibly consume. Wise government would seek to provide sound leadership rather than promote economic growth without paying the ecological cost as governments worldwide are doing.
I entered an essay " " in a global competition " " without any success even though a Russian anthropologist gave it ten out of ten because the novel points in my essay were consistent with those raised by some past authorities with out having any impact on the decisions being made by the powerful. I have now offered a prize for the student of my old school, Launceston Grammar, who provides the best response to the challenges raised in my ELAM essay. The intention is to encourage the students to think about the reality that is occurring rather than the delusion fostered by the mainstream. Maybe in 2015 I will have some success in improving understanding of reality by focusing on novel, unrecognized.basic scientific principles.
This is an update of the essay I produced for 2014. Before presenting an update on background and recommendations, I will comment on the impact of what has happened in 2014 on the premises I put forward. The global awareness of the deleterious impact of climate change and some remedial measures have grown during the year but, surprisingly, Australian 'leaders', still consider the pursuit of economic growth to be more important! Economic growth has slowed down in many countries due to the combination of a number of economic, social, political and ecological reasons accentuated by conflicts in a number of regions, particularly the Middle East, together with the common financial market games played by powerful interests in Eastern as well as Western countries. The recent drop in oil price will hit many economies (particularly Russia and Iran) and industries (including shale oil producers) hard although the masses here will welcome the cheaper fuel for a while only. This oil price hiccup is bound to lead to tumultuous events in the coming year that will have an impact in this country. The lowering price of iron ore is also going to hit the budgets of industry and government hard in the coming year.Unfortunately, there are no signs that our federal and state politicians have a clue about about how things really work. Employment, health and education are important issues but the holistic one is that the technological systems are irreversibly using up natural resources, producing irrevocable waste and devastating the environment. A commentator blamed the loss by the Liberals of the Victorian election on the failure to emphsise liberal values of small government, individual liberty and personal responsibility. His attitude sums up the reason why civilization is doomed. People do not really have the liberty to consume irreplaceable natural resources and produce irrevocable waste. Responsible people do their utmost to live sustainably with what nature provides but the majority irresponsibly consume. Wise government would seek to provide sound leadership rather than promote economic growth without paying the ecological cost as governments worldwide are doing.
I entered an essay " " in a global competition " " without any success even though a Russian anthropologist gave it ten out of ten because the novel points in my essay were consistent with those raised by some past authorities with out having any impact on the decisions being made by the powerful. I have now offered a prize for the student of my old school, Launceston Grammar, who provides the best response to the challenges raised in my ELAM essay. The intention is to encourage the students to think about the reality that is occurring rather than the delusion fostered by the mainstream. Maybe in 2015 I will have some success in improving understanding of reality by focusing on novel, unrecognized.basic scientific principles.
In my retirement I have researched what civilization has done
to its life support system, the environment and the underground material bounty.
I have used the internet to gather information and evidence and to peruse the
views of informed people in many fields. I now know the fundamental physical principles
governing the operation of all the technological infrastructure of
civilization. This operation is an unsustainable process that uses up the
limited natural material wealth while producing irrevocable material waste in
providing the goods and services that society has become so dependent on. The harm that this process is doing to the
environment is another deleterious consequence of this lust by society for a
high material standard of living regardless of the real ecological cost. The
fact that the marine ecosystem is also being devastated does not receive the
warranted consideration, as yet. The billions who rely on fish for protein are
striving to ineffectively cope with this marine predicament. Although climate
change is causing widespread concern, little effective adaption is being
implemented. These examples are only symptoms of the stark reality, but society
does not understand the fundamental physical principle that the operation of the
systems of civilization is unsustainable. And there is no reason to believe
that the powerful or the masses will take this reality into account until it
hits home hard in coming years due to numerous deleterious effects. The impact
of climate change is only one symptom of the holistic malaise. Many others are
being assessed by scientists in their specific fields. Knowledgeable people
talk in terms of the collapse of our civilization. They are referring to a
process that is under way now and will take place relatively slowly over the
coming decades. ‘Black swan’ events may
precipitate local catastrophes that will hasten the demise. The current
population is beyond the carrying capacity of Earth so a horrifying die off is
certain this century. Ironically, the inevitable demise of the infrastructure (the
cities, roads, ports, sewerage systems etc.) will also be a problem that the
coming generation will have to face. How will they cope as the availability of
food, fuels, electricity and many other services declines?
Individuals,
families and even communities can do very little to ameliorate the inevitable
powering down of society as a whole. But they can ease the situation for
themselves and associates by making sound decisions and by adopting worthwhile
practices. My objective in writing this essay is to pass on useful facets of
the knowledge I have gained in my research. Many informed people around the
globe have put forward sound proposals. I summarize these below to the best of
my ability as I want this to be a useful legacy.
I list below
issues you will some time address and I then follow with comments on them if I
believe I can provide sound insight.
1. Attitude
2. Outlook
3. Environmental issues
4. Family
5. Residence
6. Diet
7. Health issues
8. Education
9. Skills
10. Technology
11. Life style
12. Social issues
13. Career
14. Retirement
15. Communication
16. Relaxation
17. Traveling
18. Managing financial affairs
19. Prognosis
I will not
deign to say much on many of these items. The search mechanisms on the internet can
easily provide back up material for these items. I only provide advice where my
research provides understanding of details of how the future will be different
to what has happened in recent times and, often, what is the general misleading
view portrayed by the powerful in society, governments and the media. I want
this understanding to help people cope with the inevitable powering down of
Australian society by making sound decisions on the issues listed here. We live in the lucky country but that does not
mean that we can look forward to continuance of the economic growth so beloved
by politicians – for now. You cannot expect to have a major impact on what
happens overall, but you can influence the prospects of family, friends and your
community by your behavior and the understanding you promote.
I find it
useful in making points to differentiate the common view of what is happening
and why from the reality of what is happening to the physical world. I call the
former Myopia while the specialists in affected fields and the few realists
understand what is actually happening in the Real world. It is becoming
increasingly common in learned circles to regard the natural world as being a
great organism, termed Gaia, that has slowly evolved and will continue to do so
despite the damage that industrial civilization is now doing to it. Knowledgeable people are calling our times the
Anthropocene Era due to what we are doing to our life support system. I find it useful to term the temporary inanimate organism
that is the infrastructure of our civilization (cities, roads, power stations,
etc.) Tityas. Tityas is feeding off Gaia for operation and maintenance in an
unsustainable process. It is entering its senescence as the natural resources
it thrives on decline. Its decline will ensure the end of the Anthropocene Era
and will be causing society to power down.
Now for
comments on the items listed above.
1.
The
current Myopic attitude of most people in Australia is that they strive to make
enough money so that they and their family can enjoy a high material standard
of living. As the economy contracts in coming years, smart people will embrace
an improved life style with less accent on having things and more on worthwhile
activities. They will have a real, progressive outlook rather than being conned
by the Myopic illusions thrown up on TV and the conditioning they have been
given during the years of economic growth. Smart people will employ the
precautionary principle because they understand that the boom this century is
unsustainable, so living standards will decline even here in Australia. Only
time will answer the question of how rapidly, although sound advice can be
found on the internet by carefully sorting the wheat from the chaff. The media hype
will be of no assistance! And governments will, as usual, respond belatedly to
rising predicaments. The slow, belated and misguided response to climate change
is but one current example of their ineptitude. The current crisis in many manufacturing industries is
largely due to financial issues but the impact on the workers in these industries and their families is indicative of what is bound to be a growing problem as the economy
contracts due to Real factors.
2.
The
general outlook now in Myopia is for continuing progress. Most people hope that
the situation for their family will improve. This hope is based on failure to
understand that the operation of the technological systems of civilization is
an unsustainable process. They do not understand how the Real world operates. This
process that uses up limited stored natural resources, produces irrevocable
material wastes and degrades the environment in an unsustainable process that
contributes to food production, population and infrastructure growth and
consumption that cannot last. Toxic wastes are polluting land, sea, air and all
organisms, including humans. Knowledgeable people have tagged this as the
Anthropocene Era because human decisions in recent times have had such a
devastating impact on how the environment operates that it cannot continue and
the era will end. Those who understand the stark reality of what is happening
will adopt a cautious outlook and accept a prudent policy based on the
precautionary principle. They will go to the trouble of taking into account
what experts are saying about what is happening in their fields rather than believe
the hype of the mainstream media. They will strive to understand how the Real
world operates. The collapse of numerous civilizations in the past three
thousand years for a combination of ecological, economic, social and political
reasons provides only some indication of what lies ahead for the current
industrialized civilization because the giant rapacious Tityas now exists. Ironically,
a number of authors have published over the years realistic appreciations of
what has gone wrong in past and current civilizations without having any impact
on the policies of the public and the ‘leaders’ of society. However, these
sound views tend to focus on why societies have gone down a path rather than on
what consequently irreversibly happened to the supporting structures and
environment. The global dependence on using irreplaceable natural resources
adds to the problems that previous civilizations were unable to cope with. They
did not have a hungry giant Tityas. The nature and rapidity of the gradual collapse
of Tityas will vary spatially and temporally during the remainder of this
century. The global financial crisis of 2008, the impact of climate change on typhoons,
storms, wild fires, floods and droughts, the health crisis afflicting billions
of the young and aged and other creatures, the desperate efforts of the oil and
gas industry to supply energy by fracking despite the ecological cost are just
some of the symptoms of the holistic malaise of this civilization and its
spoilt offshoot, Tityas. Smart people will obtain a more realistic outlook by
obtaining understanding of what is actually happening from the experts in the
various fields by using the search facilities on the internet rather than the Myopia
delusion fostered by government, industry and the main stream media. They will
realize that symptoms of the collapse of this civilization and the mass
extinction are there for those prepared to look – and think. They will embrace
the Real view. They will realize that society is facing a dilemma with regard
to supply and demand. The current civilization is demanding the consumption of
natural resources at an increasingly high rate as the supply declines. Smart
people will cope with the inevitable powering down by being frugal as there is
little they can do to ameliorate the holistic malaise.
3.
Environmental
issues are receiving more attention for good reason. Society is used to coping
with the occasional natural disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
tsunamis, hurricanes, storms, floods and droughts. These are actually becoming
more common due to climate change despite the denial of this aspect of Real by some
prominent Myopians and very little remedial action. However, this issue is
being compounded by the occurrence of unnatural disasters due to the failings
of technological systems in Tityas. Often natural and unnatural disasters
combine to provide a catastrophe. The tsunami combined with the ineptitude in
the design of the Fukushima nuclear power station has produced on ongoing
catastrophe for the Japanese and countless others as the toxic radioactive
waste streams away in ocean currents. The Chernobyl nuclear plant failure was
another unnatural disaster that had grim consequences for many in various
countries for a long time. The precautionary principle has not been applied to
the numerous nuclear power stations in the US and European countries. So a
number of unnatural disasters of this type are possible as these plants age.
Safe disposal of the vast amount of nuclear waste that has accumulated is swept
under the carpet by the governments simply because they have no sound disposal
plan. The disasters due to radioactive nuclear wastes are building up. Greenhouse
gases are already causing atmospheric and ocean disasters. But disasters are
not the only environmental issues causing increasing concern. Deforestation, desertification,
loss of aquifer water and soil fertility, devastation of the marine ecosystem
are some of the growing problems that are being compounded by climate change.
Australia is particularly vulnerable as it is the dry continent with a small
proportion of fertile soil. All one can do is be aware of what is happening to
the environment so one can contribute a little to society coping with the
ongoing devastation.
4.
The
mutual support within a family and local community has been one of the most
beneficial factors in many societies for a long time. This has tended to
decline in recent times in most countries, partly as the young have adapted to
a progressing economy. Changing values have also had an impact with marriage
and having children losing its attraction for many. The unsustainable growth in
the global population will exert growing pressure on society as a whole but
there is no reason for a couple to take it into account in deciding the size of
their family. But they should consider whether they will be able to foster a
sound upbringing of their children as times inevitably become more difficult
and values change. The increasing alcoholism and drug abuse amongst the young
is just a symptom of what is coming as the bewildered lose hope of a prosperous
standard of living. An additional problem is that people are living longer
while the coming contraction of the economy will place an increasing load on
medical and care services. Those families and communities that cherish the
values of resilience and compassion and embrace sound living will be in a
better position to face these challenges. And understanding of what is really
happening will reduce the bewilderment.
5. When considering moving to another
abode bear in mind the following issues:
·
Those
homes that are very dependent on heating and cooling appliances for comfort in
summer and winter will become most unattractive as energy costs more while
climate change increases the demand for comfort indoors. Look for homes that
are orientated to take advantage of sunshine, no larger than necessary and also
have good insulation.
·
The
advantages that apartments may seem to have now will dissipate when inevitably
power supply declines. Imagine what it
will be like when residents have to walk up many flights of stairs!
·
Suburban
sprawl has become endemic in the major cities and has fostered the growing
dependence on the car just as the availability of fuel noticeably declines. Regional
cities will become more attractive where there are adequate employment options.
·
Buying
a home by getting a large mortgage has become a sound financial move in recent
times. Those days are coming to an end as economic growth peaks and can become
disastrous for many as the decline sets in. Renting may not be financially
attractive but the only possibility. Young couples moving in with parents is
becoming increasingly common as the financial situation deteriorates.
6.
Mainstream
media provides a confusing mix of dietary and cooking information combined with
the promotion of fast foods. The very real problem with obesity is already receiving
due attention and that will increase as it is now an endemic problem. However,
advice about the emerging danger of eating sea foods should also be taken
seriously. Radioactive waste from the Fukushima nuclear accident seems to be
combining with ocean acidification due to fossil fuel emissions to
deleteriously affect many varieties of fish by altering the marine eco system. There
are alternative sources of proteins. Growing your own fruit and vegetables will
help ease the diet problem significantly, especially as transportation problems
will reduce the convenience of conventional shopping malls. Eating out will
become less popular so cooking skills will again be a worthwhile acquisition in
households.
7.
Concern
about health issues is biased by the impact of commercial presentations on
medications and announcements of advances in treatment of such problems as
breast cancer, diabetes and alzheimer’s disease. Emerging problems due to the
increasing contamination of bloodstreams due to the toxic materials in the air,
food and water do not yet receive the mainstream attention that is warranted.
Radioactive waste from the Fukushima nuclear disaster can well be a major
contribution to the impact of toxic materials. Fracking to extract shale oil
and gas is contaminating groundwater yet some state governments are supporting
proposals for industry to make money by providing energy by this process. There is little you can do about pollution
other than take into account that it is worse in some overseas regions,
including many cities. However, you can enjoy the health benefits of sound food
and physical activities. The common obesity indicates how many in society have
given in to fast food and sedimentary activities. Watching TV and playing video
games is a common ailment now but it will decrease in due course as these
facilities become rarer. Ironically, the decrease in these distractions will
force people to adopt a healthier life style. There is concern that a plague
may occur that will have a devastating impact on the global population. The
current bubonic plague in Madagascar is an indication that humans are still
susceptible to a problem that led to the Black Death in the Middle Ages.
Hygienic practices in developed countries lessen that possibility here but bugs
like international travel too!
8.
Education
will become increasingly important as the values in society change from the
emphasis on increasing material standard of living to improving life style with
less damage to the environment and a reduction in consumption. The current
trend in fostering living with nature will continue to increase in schools. The
courses available in universities are bound to focus more on means of adapting
to what civilization is actually doing rather than innovative technology and
economics. However, the increasing dependence on information technology is a
worrying tendency as it is not sustainable. Smart people will be selective
about their learning activities so they will have the resilience to cope with
trends not foreseen in the mainstream. There will be reversion to many simpler
past practices.
9.
Technological
developments have greatly reduced the demand on people to have many fundamental
skills. The current throw-away society will be replaced by a society facing the
challenge of making do with a much lower material standard of living without
having adequate coping skills. Fixing things rather than replacing them will again
become the norm, where that is practical. But many items are now so constructed
that they cannot be repaired. Gone are the days when car owners could maintain
their cars for years. Nevertheless, going to the trouble of learning basic
useful mechanical, electrical and wood working skills will pay off in due
course. This, of course, is in addition to the worthwhile gardening, storing
and cooking skills
10. Society is addicted to the benefits
provided by technology without understanding that technology has never created
anything! Society is conditioned to believe inventors have devised means to
provide the goods and services that are so much a part and parcel of what
happens. All technology has ever done is enable the use of natural forces to
irreversibly consume natural resources and produce irrevocable material waste
in the process of producing the goods and services so beloved by society. Society
blesses (and pays well) inventors, innovators and entrepreneurs now but how
will they be treated in the future after the peak of everything? Ironically,
there is nothing you can do about this delusion. The role of technology will
slowly decline as its sustenance, natural resources, become scarcer.
11. For decades the powerful in society
have promoted the view that the market economy will foster the trickling up of
material standard of living so to an improving life style for the masses. That
has happened to the middle classes in the developed countries and is happening
now in the developing countries such as China and India. It is based on the
ability of the systems of civilization to divest natural material wealth at a
high rate. That rapacious process is coming to an end. Smart people will adopt
a frugal life style based on doing rather than consuming while seeking the
benefits of localisation. They will avoid the harshest aspects of the
inevitable powering down that will infect most of society and they will also
have the advantage that they understand why this decline is happening.
12. Social issues have always been
worrisome due to the actions of the repellent minority, often because they are
disadvantaged or have unreasonable beliefs. There is widespread concern at how criminal
activities, domestic violence, alcoholism, drug abuse and other anti-social
issues are escalating, especially among the young. This malfeasance is bound to
grow rapidly as more people become disillusioned as the progress they have been
conditioned to expect dies. Smart people will be able to do no more than
promote understanding, especially amongst the young, that society will have to
learn to live with nature. It is quite possible that many of the brightest
youngsters will rise to the challenge of fostering a sound powering down. The
least that the oldsters can do is to foster this positive movement among the
smart young. However, that can only slightly ameliorate the disintegration of
society as a whole.
13. Choice of career has always been an
important issue for the young but the pressures will be changing dramatically
in the years ahead. The need to look ahead is becoming more difficult due to
the inevitable ending of economic growth together with the declining material
standard of living combined with the aging population. Many of the careers that
are currently deemed as being worth striving for will turn out to be dead ends.
Airline pilots enjoy an attractive image now but that will not last because
airliners are a threatened species. The current chaos in the automotive industry
in Australia will get no better even though the number of cars being produced
globally is still going up. That production rate will peak shortly and then decline
rapidly, mainly because the fuel is running out and the necessary materials
becoming scarce. Considering a career in mining, manufacturing or marketing
would be unwise. Professionals in the legal and financial fields will be under
greater pressure to provide reasonable service at a competitive price. The
demand for scientists and engineers will focus on maintenance and remedial
activities. The demand for education, health, caring and security services will
continue but budgetary constraints in a declining economy could reduce
prospects. On the other hand, the demand for electricians, carpenters and other
skilled tradespeople is bound to increase as people are forced by circumstances
to power down.
14. Retirement is unlikely to be as
comfortable and pleasing as retirees are enjoying now. Superannuation is most
unlikely to provide adequate finance for the touring that most people look
forward too, especially as cars and airlines will no longer be affordable for
many. The aging of the population will put pressure on the governments to fund
pension, health and caring services as their budgets are hard hit by reduced
taxation income as industry fades combined with the cost of debt servicing
rising. Smart people will adopt a frugal outlook now so that their retirement
will not be stressful.
15. Society is happily embracing the
information revolution without giving any thought to how long it will be
possible for industry to manufacture the vast number of computers, smart phones
and other electronic devices by using up the depleting rare earth minerals and
other irreplaceable materials. They do not understand that it is an
unsustainable process that will be entering its senescence shortly. Banking,
on-line shopping, social networking, searching for information, entertainment,
learning, education, promoting views and stimulating activities are some of the
activities that people around the globe
have become addicted too because they have not been educated about reality. How
will they cope with the gradual withdrawal of these facilities in the decades
ahead? How long will the National Broadband Network be operational? Most people
will say that such a situation cannot occur. They will say that science and
technology will come up with solutions but that is because they do not
understand that technology has never done more than use natural forces to
consume natural resources while
producing irrevocable waste material just to provide humans with goods and
services for a while. Most people will find it hard to cope with the decline in
the availability of these services and they will not be able to expect much
help from governments or industry.
16. Stress will become an increasing
problem as people find it hard to accept that the good times are becoming
fanciful images. The ability to relax will, consequently, become a more useful
therapeutic measure. But the current emphasis on relaxing by watching TV,
playing video games or other measures depending on technological systems cannot
continue. There will be a reversion to focussing on artistic pursuits, hobbies,
sporting endeavours, games such as chess and social discourse for relaxation.
Ironically, the conversion of many redundant shops in shopping malls to meeting
places will foster the social discourse that used to be so common in many
countries.
17. The current trend on travelling
around the world for pleasure as well as business is built on the facility of
airliners. And that will not last. Those who have the desire or need and the
means should do it in the near future as the ability to do so will decline
rapidly. It would be unwise to put such a move on the agenda for retirement.
The Boeing Dreamliner, Airbus 340 and other airliners consume vast quantities
of jet fuel during their limited lifetimes. There is not enough acreage for
biofuels to meet more than a small proportion of the insatiable appetite of armada
of airliners. Land and sea transports will continue to demand their share of
this scarce natural resource.
18. Managing financial affairs will
change profoundly in the coming decades. Society has become conditioned by the
rapid economic growth of recent times to make financial decisions that they
could rue in the not too distant future. The investment boom will have
encouraged them to fallaciously believe that their superannuation will finance
a pleasant retirement while being able to support the pretensions of their
family. The equity in their home will be supporting that unwise presumption.
Financial managers will have to become more circumspect in their advice as
money loses its potency.
19. Society has become very dependent on
the services provided by the systems of industrial civilization. This
particularly so in the cities. The gradual withdrawal of these services in the
decades ahead will have a profound impact on many people. The rich elite will
have the monetary leverage to cope with the powering down. The smart people
will use their knowledge to make sound proactive decisions. But the overall
situation will be catastrophic. That is the prognosis based on the
understanding of how the Real world operates.
The understanding that I have embodied in this essay is grim
but based on the reality of what happens rather than what people want to
believe. So let the points I have made here provide you with guidance in the
years ahead.