decisions amok

Billions of people are making a multitude of decisions about physical activities every day. Some are the mundane associated with every day life. Others have a significant impact on the future behavior of communities and of systems. Some decisions are good and some are bad. In combination they have a tremendous influence of what is happening at a range of levels from how they affect the individual up to the global impact.The range and weight of the impact depends on many circumstances. Listing some of these provides insight into what humans are arranging with their decisions.

• when and what to eat - smart people stick to a routine and eat reasonable amounts of good food - unwise people over eat of fast food - however, many people have little choice and have to make do
• when and what to drink - smart people ensure they consume adequate amounts of a mix of liquids appropriate to the occasions - unwise people too often go overboard on alcoholic beverages - however, many people find it hard to get potable water
• what drugs to take - smart people take them only when deemed necessary by medical advisers - unwise people take them because they like the short term benefits and discount the long term side effects - however, many people are not in the position to be tempted
• what housing - smart people live in reasonable homes in convenient locations  - the elite show off their position by living in McMansions that they cannot really afford or manage - however, many billions around the globe get by as best they can with unsatisfactory shelter
• what facilities to have in the home - many people take water supply, cooking facilities, toilets, heating, air-conditioning, communication and entertainment facilities for granted - however, many people have access to few of the facilitators of a comfortable life style
• how to cope with diseases - inoculations and medications help many people overcome natural diseases - however, there is no means to overcome the insidious disease affecting many people, too much money 

Aircrat technology chasing its tail

The Red Baron adroitly used his Fokker in downing many Sopwith Camels in the Great War. Spitfires and Hurricanes repelled the German bombers in the Battle of Britain while matching the Focke-Wulf. The Germans were too late in introducing jet fighters. The Japanese Zero was too maneuverable for the Yankee fighters in the Pacific air war until the Lightning entered the scene. The American Sabre jet was not only compared to the Russian MiG on paper as they met over Korea. The F-15 Eagle has added to the potential air power of numerous countries for many years.The Mirage was a useful mirage in the Australian defence capabilities for decades. The Hornet has not had to prove its sting but looks good in air shows. The F-35 Lightning II lights up the eyes of the PM as it is expected to add to our defence capabilities in due course even though it may not be a match for the Chinese J-20 or J-31 or the Russian/Indian Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA).

These developments in fighter aircraft over the years are an example of technology chasing its tail in an unsustainable process.  Unfortunately it has not been matched by a revolutionary way of providing aircraft fuel (because that is not physically possible) or of creating the materials irrevocably used up (because that is also not possible) . This example of biased unsustainable technology development has fostered the aircraft industry and has contributed to airliner development but at great ecological and natural resource (but not yet financial, social and political) cost.

Society will be bewildered as this era comes to an end due to the declining availability of the energy and materials used in building and operating these insatiable mechanistic monstrosities. Politicians, business people and tourists will rue the associated loss of airline travel. The aviation, defense and airline industries will vainly try to maintain their ravishing in an attempt to made money for their investors and prolong the careers for their specialists. And governments will belatedly adopt defensive policies. 

Progonosis of a failing organism

We have understanding of how organisms, including human beings, operate as they grow to maturity then senescence leads to inevitable demise. Of course, medical people have much greater understanding of the detail including the role of the multitude of cells that control operations in the organism. The mechanism is an extraordinary extremely complex operation that has evolved naturally. It is a phenomenon that we tend to take for granted except in the relatively rare cases when the program goes wrong to a small extent. Cancer is a localized mutation that causes a degree of concern while the vast majority of cells in the organism get on with their prescribed job during their short lifetimes.

This behavior of organic organisms is common knowledge. However, the existence of a vast inorganic organism having many similar characteristics is not widely help. James Lovelock has over the years provided sufficient argument to convince knowledgeable people that the ecosystem is a gigantic inorganic organism with operation controlled by the interaction of a host of organic and inorganic processes. It has been given the name, Gaia. Its operation is similar in some respects to that of natural biological organisms. A wide range of natural processes emulate the role of cells in biological organisms.

Civilization is also a vast organism we can call Tityas, the delinquent son of Gaia. It is growing rapidly as its multitude of human beings use a variety of tools to act like cells. But, unlike the cells in natural organisms, these cells are not programmed to carry out specialized constructive operations. Many of them do but there are sufficient rogues to foster irrevocable obesity of the organism. Intangible money flow is the life blood of this organism even though it is often contaminated by greed. The cells in under developed regions of this organism are vainly striving to attain healthy operations while those in over developed regions continue their cancerous malfeasance. The organism is entering its senescence with few cells operating benignly. The inevitable demise of civilization will entail a die off of much of the population coupled with disintegration of much of the infrastructure that provides them with goods and services.

The only treatment for the disease this organism is suffering from is for the Earth's Lodgers' Activity Management (ELAM) movement's large dose of understanding influencing the operation of a high proportion of the cells of Tityas. Is there hope of this treatment eventuating?

Wars - who are the enemies?

Wars have been disrupting and degrading society while damaging the infrastructure of civilization for millennia. It is one of the deleterious features of the operation of our society. This feature has been fostered by political, religious, racial and social animosity. But it also has also been fostered by those people and concerns that have gained by providing the implements of war and the postwar reconstruction. Ironically, countries and communities that have been bitter enemies at one time have often become friends at a later stage - and vice versa!

Societies have been very adroit in finding enemies (and friends) for a variety of reasons. Yet, ironically, society has never officially declared war on Mother Nature (Gaia) even though they have being do their utmost to ravish her for their selfish purposes for millennia. Money has been the tool for this divestment of the  natural material wealth of humanity's life support system. It has fostered the unsustainable growth of the population of parasitic humans. It has fostered the unsustainable growth of the technological infrastructure of civilization (Tityas) by the irreversible of some of Mother Nature's natural wealth.

But fiat money does not take into account the consequences of the ravishing that it has encouraged. So society will have the pay the price of treating Mother Nature as the enemy. She is slowly responding to the aggression of the parasites and the damage being done by their tools. She will win the undeclared war and the surviving parasites will find it hard to adapt as they lose the capabilities of Tityas (their aging infrastructure.)

Beyond our ken

As a long standing physical scientist, I have repeatedly asked many technical questions over the years about what physically happens and why. I manged to get a few answers during my career as an aeronautical research scientist. I have been researching what technological systems have done to the environment during my retirement. This covers a much broader field so I have come up with many more questions but not many more answers!

Some questions that are unanswered include:

1. scientists have determined the microscopic composition (electrons, neutrons, protons) of elements and chemical compounds. They know their properties and their role in the operation of ecosystems. What carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere are doing to the climate is a popular topic now. We give little thought to the oxygen in the air mixture that we breathe or that normally there is no free hydrogen but it is in many compounds, such as water, that we find invaluable. Physicists and engineers have learned how some elements are radio active and how that can be used to provide nuclear energy in power stations  and in bombs.Chemists have provided appreciable understanding of the grouping of elements in the periodic table. They have devised reactions that have produced new products, often unexpectedly toxic although profitable.What determined this structure of elements?
2. the flow of energy plays a major role in the operation of all systems made of material. The Sun has been the source of the energy used by systems here on Earth, even that energy stored for ages in oil, gas and coal. Various forms of energy are properties of materials. It is the chemical energy in oil that powers many of the systems of civilization. However, it is the gravitational potential of water that fills a similar role with hydro stations supplying electricity. Physicists understand the microscopic aspects of energy even to the relation between energy and matter. But do cosmologists have the answer to the question as to how matter and energy came into existence?
3. natural forces took millions of years to produce oil using energy that came from the Sun. Humans devised means of extracting a high proportion of the crustal store of oil so that they can use mechanical monsters to carry them and their goods hither and thither on land, in the air and upon the sea. Despite valiant attempts by industry to devise measures to extract what is remaining of the various forms of oil, the availability of oil products is irreversibly declining. The question is: what will most people do when they can not longer call upon the mechanical monsters to carry them and their goods hither and thither?
4. fuel for the mechanical monsters is running out. That is an indisputable fact. It is not a question. But those monsters are made of irreplaceable materials extracted out of the crustal store. And friction ages them. So the question is whether the die off of the mechanical monsters will be a bigger problem for society than running out of fuel.
5. scientists have in recent times acquired a vast amount of knowledge and understanding of how the vast array of natural forces operate in the various fields. The introduction of  improved instruments and data handling systems has facilitated  that progress. Governments and industries sponsor technological research and development with the objective of the provision of innovative goods and services. Why is science given such reverence when the objective is to provide these goods and services at the expense of permanent divestment of natural material wealth?
6. engineers got so carried way with the invention of machinery to extract and process natural material resources to supply electrical energy that they did not take into account the fact that  useful energy is always a property of materials. The combustion of fossil fuels produces the greenhouse gases that have made a major contribution to irreversible rapid climate change and ocean acification and warming. Can they redress that mistake by coming up with a system that will sequester carbon dioxide in a sustainable manner? That is a question that has been addressed without taking into account the fact that sequetering would entail the installation of a temporary system at appreciable ecological cost.
7. do those who benefit from what technological systems provide by ravishing eco systems take into account the fact that the natural force, friction, irreversibly ages the systems. This is common knowledge but its long term impact is not factored into financial consideration. Do politicians, economists and financial advisers believe natural resources can be conjured up out of thin air in the way money is?
8. disposal of radioactive waste from nuclear power stations has been put in the too hard baskets by governments in a number of countries. What sound proposals can possibly deal with this problem when the capabilities to carry out remedial measures have been drastically reduced as materials run out?
9. wise people have the view that greed is the (financial) market's vice. They view greed as being at the heart of three major threats to our existence as individuals and societies: pollution, terrorism and crime. What can be done to get rid of this insidious disease?
10. oligarchy has been a tenet of the elite in societies for a long time even though the term has gained prominence through activities in Russia in recent times. What do the oligarch hope to gain with their riches apart from a lavish life style. It certainly is not immortality and it appears that it does not buy them happiness. What can explain the rapid growth of this parasitic portion of the human race?  
11. economists are strong in pronouncements of policies that will foster economic growth. They have developed mathematical tools to analyze financial market developments and to estimate opportunity costs. They claim they have adopted a scientific methodology. How can they claim that when ecological costs are not included in their methodology?
12. What right has society to condone the irreversible devastation of the life support system of civilization?
13. The Good Friday Appeal for the Melbourne Children's Hospital  brings to the TV screen the marvelous efforts of the doctors and nursing staff in dealing with sick children. They use a bewildering array of devices in carrying out their life saving activities. What will these skilful people do when the specialized equipment can no longer be procured? How will parents deal with the loss of these heath services?That time will come before the end of this century.

Free will

It is amusing the read the discussions of seemingly knowledgeable people about whether people exercise 'free will'. Many claim that people cannot exercise free will and they quote the constraints that determine that it is not free will.The only constraints on what I am typing now is that the computer system exists. I am free to express my opinion of 'free will'. You might think what I am writing is gibberish. You are free to write what you believe to be the case with respect to 'free will'.
Leonardo da Vinci doubtless had his beliefs about 'free will' as he was free to indulge his artistic creative ability centuries ago.

So, yes, there are boundaries to the 'free will' region. Physical, social, political, religious and economic constraints can define the boundaries of the region but individuals have the 'free will' within that region.Even a one-year-old child exercises a degree of 'free will' within its limited region. On the other hand, even a billionaire has a limit to his/her large 'free will' region and it will contract drastically late in life.

The demise of the flying machine

For centuries, people dreamed of being able to fly like birds. Leonardo da Vinci had sound ideas but it was centuries before pioneers like Lawrence Hargrave produced machines that obtained lift from the air. Numerous people in various countries tried variations but it was the Wright brothers in the US who were the first to succeed in have a machine carry a human in a flight. This was a start to the twentieth century. Rapid progress followed as understanding of aerodynamics and engineering aided the race in many countries to build bigger, faster and longer flying aircraft. Military requirements provided much of the early boost for the rising aircraft industries but developments for commercial use really took over in the middle of the century. Airliners now dominate traffic in the skies and many people enjoy rapid transit around the globe for political, business and pleasure activities.

Very few of the passengers in these airliners give a moments thought to the reality that airliners are an artificial, parasitic species that is doomed for extinction this century. Many clever people have made contributions to the design, construction and operation of airliners such as the Boeing Dreamliner and the A380 Airbus. But these aircraft use jet fuel, processed from oil. The supply of this natural bounty is irreversibly running out and no viable alternative is practical. Bio-fuels can fill only a niche role at the expense of meeting other needs, including food. But lack of fuel will not be the only factor leading to the demise of the artificial bird. Aircraft are made of a range of materials gleaned from the crustal store and many of these are also becoming beyond reach rapidly. So our emulation of birds is  doomed because we could not come up with a means to emulate nature's slow but reliable means of generating such natural resources as oil. The skills of the aerodynamicists, designers, machinists, management, pilots and others in the aeronautics fields will become surplus to requirements as society at large tries to cope with the inevitable powering down as the infrastructure of civilization collapses. Society at large will not be happy with the withdrawal of the service currently provided by the airlines. And the military will have to reduce their dependence on aircraft, including drones.

Cars, container vessels, computers and numerous other devices that society has become dependent on will also become become fond memories for those who survive the inevitable loss of much of the essentials, food, potable water, shelter, heating, air conditioning, health services and sanitation. The disintegration of the cities will be a reminder of the fact that humans could not successfully use up the limited natural material wealth that had evolved over eons at such a high rate.They will have to power down and try to live with what nature can still provide.